1 Financial, economic and social crisis – The impacts for the EU Hungarian Academy of Sciences Institute of Economics Halpern, László

2 Crisis New elements of a crisis: Financial sector: housing, mortgage Post-Lehman: partner risk, liquidity sqeeze No decoupling V – U – L Social consequences Rising unemployment Declining social transfers Spreading extreme populism

3 NMS perspectives Integration Trade FDI Labour Institutions EU-EC ECB SGP

4 New divide? MNC Relocations Banks Credit crunch Preferences State subsidy Heterogeneity Emerging economic nationalism

5 Crisis management: Short ECB Reciprocal currency arrangements Collateral Avoidance of asymmetric credit constraints Policy action within NMS Liquidity management Sustainable fiscal packages

6 Crisis management: Medium Financial sector More effective surveillance European financial supervision EU-wide coordination of guarantees Coordinated involvement of other sources of development finance (EBRD, EIB) Level playing field Adjustment mechanisms

7 Conclusions Coordination is a must Competition commissioner and Bundesbank governor on state aid to banks Turning point of further deepening of integration More active EU participation in shaping global tendencies New model of economic development? Global EU