Developing Countries in the Global Economic Crisis Menzie D. Chinn Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs and Department of Economics University.

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Developing Countries in the Global Economic Crisis Menzie D. Chinn Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs and Department of Economics University of Wisconsin and NBER The Global Financial Crisis and Implications for Wisconsin Sponsored by WAGE University of Wisconsin School of Law March 25, 2009

Outline  The global economic landscape  Transmission channels  Impact on LDCs

The Global Landscape Source: IMF, Global Economic Policies and Prospects, March 13, 2009.

The Global Landscape (II) Source: IMF, Global Economic Policies and Prospects, March 13, 2009.

Latest forecasts: IMF Source: IMF, Global Economic Policies and Prospects, March 13, 2009.

Transmission mechanisms  Financial I: money market freeze  Financial II: portfolios of MBS, CDOs  Deleveraging  Trade

The Global Landscape (III) Source: IMF, Global Economic Policies and Prospects, March 13, 2009.

Financial II: Write-downs, capital injections, capital crunch IMF, Global Financial Stability Report (Oct. 2008), Box 1.3.

Emerging Market Credit Crunch Deutsche Bank, Emerging Markets Monthly, 13 March 2009 Source: IMF, Global Economic Policies and Prospects, March 13, 2009.

America: Consumer of last resort no longer Log real imports of goods ex.-oil, and real consumption. Source: BEA (2/27), NBER

World Trade Growth Source: IMF, Global Economic Policies and Prospects, March 13-14, 2009.

Growth Prospects in LDCs Deutsche Bank, Emerging Markets Monthly, 13 March 2009

Looking ahead  Deleveraging implies easy credit is over for…  Countries as hedge fund (Iceland)  Central Europe with BoP issues (Hungary)  Commodity exporters (e.g., Argentina)  Even oil exporters  Slower growth in East Asia (including China)

China… 4-quarter growth rate of Chinese real GDP. Source: CEIC, ADB