Indonesia Economic Update Clearing skies and the road ahead Shubham Chaudhuri Senior Economist World Bank 14 September 2009 Jakarta Indonesia

The Indonesian economy through the global financial crisis, and the road ahead  Indonesia has weathered the storm well  Why?  Clearing skies are ahead  The coming policy agenda

Indonesian economy through the crisis 5 facts 1.Growth rising 2.…and more robust than elsewhere 3.Financial markets are recovering 4.Inflation is at its low point…but remains higher than Indonesian’s neighbors 5.Social impact has been limited

Indonesia through the global crisis Growth has picked up from the start of 2009  After stalling at the end of 2008, quarterly growth rates show the economy has been recovering through the first half of 2009  Exports have recovered faster than imports, supporting GDP  Domestic demand remained robust, supported by election spending, and now the government’s stimulus spending (aggregate GDP growth) Sources: BPS via CEIC, World Bank

Indonesia through the global crisis …and other indicators also show recovery  After the downturn of late 2008, other indicators show conditions picking up since the start of 2009  Consumer confidence at record highs  Car & motorcycle demand recovering  Industrial activity has picked up Sources: BPS, GAI, PLN, ICA and Astra via CEIC, Danarakesa, World Bank

Indonesia through the global crisis Growth has been stronger than elsewhere  Extreme volatility in financial markets in late 2008 led to a sharp falls in real output in most economies  The global economy started to stabilized and recover in Q2 Sources: CEIC, Haver Analytics, BPS, JP Morgan, World Bank (GDP growth, quarterly, seasonally adjusted)

Indonesia through the global crisis Financial markets are stabilizing  Yields on Indonesian debt have returned to early 2008 levels  Spreads on Indonesian debt spiked during the financial market turbulence with Indonesia singled out as a vulnerable country  More volatile than elsewhere, too  But they have subsequently recovered, and are now below global emerging market levels Sources: JP Morgan, BI, CEIC, World Bank (EMBI spreads on sovereign USD bonds)(local currency 5 year bond yields)

Indonesia through the global crisis Financial markets are stabilizing  The rupiah, and foreign exchange reserves, have stabilized  During the peak period of market volatility, the rupiah depreciated by over one- third, and foreign reserves fell sharply – before recovering Source: BI

Indonesia through the global crisis Inflation, at its low point, is still relatively high  Inflation is near its low-point  Lower food prices benefiting poorer households especially  Core inflation has fallen less  But Indonesia’s inflation remains much higher than its trading partners’ Sources: BPS, CEIC< World Bank estimates of poverty basket inflation

Indonesia through the global crisis And the social impact limited  National poverty fell to 14.2%  Open unemployment also fell in the year to February  Employment growth outpaced the increase in the workforce  But most new jobs were informal Source: BPS

Why has Indonesia weathered the storm so well?  Structure of the economy  Relatively low trade shares overall – a large domestic market (with the added benefit of momentum coming in)  Exports weighted towards commodities and sent to a diverse range of markets  Low manufacturing/tech shares and correspondingly higher commodity shares in trade  But these factors are likely to limit Indonesia's growth prospects going forward Sources: IMF, CEIC, Thomson- Reuters, RBA, BPS, World Bank Medium- and high-tech manufacturing output (% GDP) GDP growth (Sep-08 to Mar-09) Japan Australia Taiwan Malaysia Germany Korea MexicoThailand Spain Italy Netherlands Canada France UK US Indonesia % % (producers of capital and high-tech goods suffered larger falls in GDP)

Why has Indonesia weathered the storm so well?  Strong position coming into the crisis  Relatively strong financial sector – with little exposure to critical financial products  Low corporate leverage  Low public debt, strong fiscal position Sources: MoF and World Bank (central government budget deficit and debt levels)

Why has Indonesia weathered the storm so well?  Proactive Government responses  Financial market safety net response  Expenditure stimulus plus tax cuts response  Public finance response (Central government budget balance and bank deposits at the end of the first half of each year, IDR trillions) Sources: Ministry of Finance and BI

The outlook: skies continuing to clear With the outlook now for gradual recovery Source: World Bank  The outlook for the global economy has stabilized, and foresees a gradual recovery in growth  China and other developing economies are projected to lead the recovery  But global growth is projected to remain below the ~5% average of recent years into the next decade (Annual growth of Indonesia’s major export destinations)

The outlook: skies continuing to clear Commodity prices, still volatile, recovering some of their losses  International commodity prices are back to 2006 levels  Outlook for some further, small recovery (Index, July 2008 peak = 100) Source: World Bank

The outlook: skies continuing to clear What it has meant and is likely to mean for Indonesia Sources: BPS, CEIC, World Bank. World Bank projections  Indonesia is positioned to do well, but a weaker global environment means that growth prospects may be somewhat lower than they have been and sustaining growth is going to take a push  Gains in poverty reduction likely to slow  Budget deficit may well be smaller than government’s proposed budgets, suggesting greater scope for stimulatory spending  Scope to lock-in current low inflation rates

The outlook: skies continuing to clear But considerable global risks remain  The medium term global challenge is to unwind the various stimuli used to fight the downturn:  Reducing the fiscal stimulus and developed country debt burdens is made more difficult by aging populations and political will  And unwinding monetary stimulus is difficult due to uncertainty around lags (too soon and recovery suffers, too late and inflation takes off) and the shift from goods inflation to asset price volatility  This implies that financial markets may remain volatile for some time (exchange rates, commodity prices, interest rates and so forth)  Indonesia is particularly vulnerable to this volatility  Still the volatility, and impact on the economy, is likely to be smaller than late 2008  And the longer term challenges  Addressing global imbalances – improving but are still large implying weaker world growth as OECD consumers save more and consume less  And a difficult structural adjustment to higher world capital and energy prices – compounded by higher carbon prices?

The outlook: skies continuing to clear …and these risks impact the outlook for Indonesia (Annual GDP growth)  There is both upside potential (from policy breakthroughs) and downside risks (from more adverse global environment) to the base outlook (Poverty rate) Sourcse: BPS, World Bank projections

Looking ahead to accelerating growth Rising or floating Source: World Bank

Realizing the development agenda  Indonesia is poised for government-catalyzed and private sector- driven investment and growth with the right policy improvements for the investment climate and complementary public investments  …and Indonesia has to put in place a social protection system appropriate for an emerging middle-income economy  Indonesia can afford to spend more on these development priorities  Indonesia’s fiscal and debt position is strong…  …and there are resources to be had if energy subsidies are redirected towards targeted social spending

A big push on infrastructure – a two part strategy  Indonesia is ready for and needs some breakthroughs:  Easing transport and logistics bottlenecks and connecting and integrating Indonesia’s domestic markets and regions:  Backbone infrastructure: Trans-Java highway (trans Sumatra too?)  This could change global perceptions (Indonesia as a BRIC?) while being desirable in its own right  While delivering a big push at the local level by:  Building world-class cities by investing in urban infrastructure (mass transport, housing, water and sanitation) in the key cities that drive Indonesian competitiveness  Revitalizing PDAMs to provide water and sanitation to Indonesia’s citizens (and especially a growing middle class)  But this will require providing resources and changing incentives – including through performance linked matching grants to Local Governments for roads/water/sanitation

Accelerating investment climate reforms and attacking coordination problems  Take a more aggressive stance toward facilitating domestic and foreign investment including  Lower entry barriers, including the time and cost to start a business, the Negative List (maintaining the positive improvements in the 2007 revision while relaxing restrictions in key sectors)  Lower operating costs with a focus on actionable steps to improve logistics,  Improve trade facilitation (replacing paper copies with a single electronic document and approval) through the National Single Window  and control the proliferation of non-tariff barriers that raise costs and reduce competitiveness  To solve difficult coordination problems success here might require a Regulatory Reform Commission with a broad mandate and authority to balance interests, address policy, coordination and implementation issues

…and the sectors with major reforms have experienced accelerating growth  Service sectors, many deregulated at the start of the decade, have been growing much faster than the rest of the economy  Partly this reflects the fact that telecoms, retailing and domestic airlines all experienced rapid growth  But partly that other sectors, especially mining and manufacturing have not been doing as well Sources: BPS and World Bank (average annual growth)

Putting in place a Social Protection System Consistent with Middle Income Status  Opportunities and Challenges  Indonesia has the resources and institutional capacity to develop effective social protection systems  as demographic and epidemiological challenges mount  Key elements  Build proven and successful social assistance and poverty alleviation programs (PNPM, BOS, BLT,…) into a comprehensive social assistance program  Lay the groundwork for a future National Health Insurance System that is clear, feasible and affordable  And put in place a grand bargain between employers and workers on severance pay that provides worker’s security without discouraging job creation 10/16/08

But all of this will require a bigger push on institutional and civil service reforms  Replicate models of institutional reform underway (at the Ministry of Finance – especially Tax and Treasury) in other institutions with significant contact with the public—Customs, BPOM, Manpower, Trade and Industry…  Complement ongoing bureaucracy reforms at the institution level with a modernized regulatory framework and central institutional set-up for civil service policy making, regulation and management  Improve compensation, recruiting and promotion but link it to accountability  Allowing fit for function institutions (not one size fits all) 10/16/08

Indonesia Economic and Policy Update: Clearing Skies Shubham Chaudhuri Senior Economist World Bank 14 September 2009 Jakarta Indonesia