Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Gilles Verner Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada NAEDEX-21 Meeting Asheville, North Carolina Septembre 2008 Mike Manore Director, Monitoring Strategies and Network Design Meteorological Service of Canada

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Outline Current Operational Status: –Space Based Monitoring and Satellite reception facilities –Computers and Telecoms –Canadian AMDAR and other MSC observations –Data issues and problems –Operational NWP system at CMC and data usage Recent changes and Future Developments: –ISO-9001 certification : forecast system –New assimilation set-up for regional system and 06/18Z runs –Modification to EPS –Incorporation of additional observations in assimilation –Next version of global system (raised lid and new obs.) –New SST analysis

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Organizational Structure ‘Space-Based Monitoring’ - Environment Canada lead: Mike Manore 1.understanding satellite data requirements ▪Environment Canada wide ▪meteorological, climate, ice, marine oil spill, wildlife habitat, etc,…. 2.ensuring data access & exchange ▪coordination/arrangements with satellite operators and other users –gov’t-to-gov’t, gov’t-to-agency, commercial –MoU with NOAA, Agreement with Eumetsat… –all appropriate missions and sensors ▪operation of EC satellite data reception and processing systems –within Gov’t of Canada ‘Shared Federal Infrastructure’ –EC leadership for operational meteorological missions –operate as a national network: GOES- Alfheim; HRPT - Bradley ▪future missions –influence future missions to meet EC requirements –Canada (CSA), International –E.g. CSA PCW mission

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report CSA PCW Mission Cooperation CSA, DND, EC Concept of 2 satellites in HEO (Molniya 12-hr orbit) ABI-like imager, 2015 timeframe Proto-operational, North Polar areas only (Nof60) (2 other sat. needed for South Polar areas) Phase 0 just completed Phase A kick-off next week, opportunities for cooperation to be examined Mission funding not yet secured EC: Louis Garand, Mike Manore, Gilles Verner

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report MSC Satellite Data Reception Facilities Dartmouth Toronto Vancouver Winnipeg CMC (3) Edmonton (2) Ottawa Resolute EARS - Eumetsat GOES HRPT EARS Dartmouth HRPT site moved to Gander Upgrade to Resolute HRPT site and telecoms is underway Gander

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Canada-EUMETSAT Cooperation Agreement Signed Fall areas of cooperation –science and product development ▪participation in SAFs, visiting scientists –optimize data acquisition and exchange of satellite data and products ▪specific agreements –e.g., EARS –define requirements and opportunities to improve high-latitude observations –explore options for Canada to contribute to EUMETSAT mission instruments ▪build on CSA associate membership in ESA –share training experience and materials –cooperation in GEO, including projects in developing countries ▪GEONETCast –exchange views on matters of satellites and satellite meteorology –explore possibilities for longer term cooperation

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Computers and Telecoms Final upgrade to IBM: 2 clusters, upgrade is underway: –current is OPS: 40 nodes, and R&D: 60 nodes –to reach OPS/DEV: 80/120 nodes by Dec08, and –to reach 80/180 nodes by June 09 –Total of 4512 P5+ processors (9024 virtual) by mid 2009 New procurement for Upgrade to SGI-FE’s: 2 x capacity, replacement with Linux clusters underway CFS: 2 PB tape capacity Links to NOAA-TOC (GTS), UKMetO (Sat data + GTS back-up), EUMETSAT (EARS) Link to NOAA-NESDIS soon (may be done by now) Internet still used for much satellite data EumetCast / GeoNetCast being considered

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Canadian AMDAR coverage

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Canadian AMDAR - Status AC Jazz: 46 CRJ and 42 DHC-8 on GTS, 2 CRJ and 14 DHC-8 retained due to problems with data quality. More CRJ to be added. CRJ data very good. DHC-8 may be removed. Still issues with DHC-8 TT data, although improved. Problem is related to data averaging aspects in avionics. Not corrected. No progress with AMS and First Air. TAMDAR approach does not seem viable for these aircraft. Still trying to obtain data from NavCanada CRJ’s (2), hopefully to be this fall. Some data samples just obtained. Negotiations on-going with WestJet, slow progress. MSC-ADAS has replaced former C-ADAS software, in-house Linux based system. Monitoring of data is on-going and showing importance of good monitoring before distribution of data.

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8 For DHC-8 Aircraft, significant difference in bias between ascent / descent data. Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics. CRJ Aircraft data are good. April 2007

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Other Canadian observations “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by data problems as reported by MetOffice : surface elevations not available or wrong. Canadian radar data - now available centrally at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) operational, full volume scans available. Provided to NOAA. Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR. Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…problems with BUFR data. Some research wind profilers in Southern Ontario and Quebec: operated by Universities, data now available to CMC and should be inserted on GTS in the near future, in BUFR code: headers to be communicated as soon as available. Some soil TT data now available, eventually in BUFR. New equipment for radiosondes. Should improve wind quality, also includes provision for 4D data in BUFR. Data available at stations but not yet on GTS. Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone. Major data management project in MSC, should lead to all data available in BUFR. Potential development of surface GPS Network. Lead: Godelieve Deblonde. Surface Weather stations for 2010 Olympics (Whistler) already on GTS.

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Canadian Profilers Resolute Bay also probable

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report McGill VHF Profiler (Montreal)

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Clovar Profiler (London, Ont.)

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Resolute Bay profiler (Arctic)

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Availability of aircraft data : status ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO – on GTS Some ADS data now collected in Northern Canada ADS data East of 30° W now available. Thanks to UK-Nats.

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Reception of ADS & AIREP data Occasionl drop in ADS data

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Some data issues SSM/I data : any chance to get F15 back, status of F14? SSM/I data quality issues – some stray scans and orbit identification and/or positioning/labelling SSM/IS – status to be discussed at this meeting, F17-18 « Slower » access to Metop data Access to some data on GTS has been problematic to CMC: IASI (300 ch subset) due to link saturation, dropsondes over Western Pacific (obtained from MetO), AMSU – timeliness of N15, N16 (not primary) Need for a Eumetcast-Europe-like system for Americas – GeoNetcast with similar content as Eumetcast?

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report SSM/I reception

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report AMSU/MHS Assimilated

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Stray scans in SSM/I Can be removed by proper filtering

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Mislabelled SSM/I Orbits Visual Check - 21/06/ Z =============================== 1. Two orbits appear in a BURP file before they should exist: 58036F13, 58037F13 ^58017F ^58018F ^58019F ^58020F ^58021F ^58022F ^58023F ^58036F ^58037F ^58024F ^58025F ^58026F ^58038F ^58039F ^58040F Orbits 36 and 37 received before they should exist! Wrong date? Also some serious orbit orvelapping

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report ^58020F13 ^58021F13 ^58022F13 Orbits 20 & 21 overlap but should not, look misplaced compared to orbit 22

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report ^58023F13 ^58036F13 ^58037F13 Orbit 36 is before 23, 37 overlaps 23; Looks like mislabelled orbits and wrong location! No easy QC solution, would need knowledge about orbit identification scheme

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report CMC OPERATIONAL RUNS: MAIN COMPONENTS GEM model Global (100km) : 0-10/15 days Regional (15km) : 0-48 hours HIMAP (10km) : 0-24 hours air quality (CHRONOS) Environmental Emergency Transport model (CANERM) Trajectory model monthly and seasonal forecasts global assimilation cycle 4D-Var Analysis (data collection and assimilation) Models, 9-hour forecast (trial field) Wave model (WAM) regional data assimilation ensemble forecasts (20 members) surface analyses GEM model Global (35 km) : 0-10/15 days Regional (15 km) : 0-48 hours LAM (2.5 km) : 0-24 hours

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Atmosphere (4D-Var) –Wind (U,V) –temperature + Ps –Moisture (ln Q) Surface (OI) –air temperature –dew point depression –precipitation amount –sea surface temperature (also lakes) –mean sea level pressure –snow depth –ice cover –ice thickness –deep soil temperature –soil moisture –albedo –and other geophysical fields based on climatology Data Assimilation – Fields Analyzed 4-D analyses from surface up to 10 hPa (58 Levels) 2-D analyses at surface Global and Regional grids (some on LAM)

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 200kmx200km/time step 7 MW channels U,V at 10 meter over ocean 250kmx250km/time step 87 IR channels SSM/I DMSP13-14 QUIKSCAT AIRS Observations assimilated in 4D-Var (750 m) Vertical hourly U,V Profiler (NOAA Network) ~180 km boxes 11 layers, per time step U,V MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra) 1.5 o x 1.5 o 11 layers, per time step U,V (IR, WV, VI, 3.9μ channels) AMV’s (METEOSAT 7-9, GOES 11-12, MTSAT-1R) 2 o x 2 o 3-hourlyIM3 (6.7 m) Water vapor channel GOES km x 250 km per time step Ocean Land AMSU-A AMSU-B / MHS ATOVS NOAA , AQUA 1 o x 1 o x 50 hPa per time step U, V, T Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) 1 report / 6hT, (T-T d ), p s, (U, V over water) Surface report (SYNOP, SHIP, BUOYs) 28 levelsU, V, T, (T-T d ), p s Radiosonde/dropsonde ThinningVariablesType 100kmx100km/time step

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Horizontal Grid of meso global GEM Previous model Global-meso 400X200 -> 100 km, L28 800X600 -> 33 km at 45 o N, L58

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 575 X 641 grid ( 66% in 15-km uniform area), 58 levels Regional model

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Currently 4 GEM LAM 2.5 km domains, plus new higher resolution domain for the Winter-2010 Olympics Topography at 2.5 km

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting New assimilation setup for regional system on July 4, hour spinup cycle (previously 12) 3D FGAT analysis 58 levels Extension to 06/18Z forecast runs on July 3, 2008 Major upgrade of the ensemble prediction system on July 10, members up to 16 days at 0.9 deg (400x200) and 28 levels Some stochastic physics Major changes to Global & Regional Systems on May 28, 2008 : 50% increase in amount of assimilated data AIRS, QuikScat, more AMV`s and AMSU Removal of AMSUA-ch3 RTTOV-8 and new vertical interpolation (Rochon), being incorporated into the RTTOV library Off-line dynamical bias correction for all radiance data

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report New Assimilation set-up for Regional System Update to 58 Levels and B Stats of meso-global GEM (from 28L, B stats from 100-km Global GEM) Spin-up shortened to 6 hours (from 12) with 3D-Var FGAT, more benefit from Global 4D-Var Snow depth anal. on 15-km model grid New ice climatology, forcing a southern limit to the ice line (monthly) Implemented July 4 th, 2007 Easy extension to 4 forecast cycles per day, implemented on July 3 rd, 2008

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Regional 12 hr spin-up cycle L’analyse est transmise Champ d’essai est produit L’analyse est produite G200 G218 G212 G206 R200 R206 R112 R212 R218 R100 R312R118 R106R300 G100 G112

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Regional 6 hr spin-up cycle, allows extension to 06/18Z runs L’analyse est transmise Champ d’essai est produit L’analyse est produite R206 R218 R100 R312R118 R106R300 R112 G200 G218 G212 G206 R200 R112 R212 G100 G112 R206 R312 R118 R218 R100 R106R300 R318 R306

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Summer O-P 48h Winter (42 cases) (42 cases

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 42 winter cases– synop and shef (00-24h)

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Gain obtained with 4 regional runs per day, updates at 06/18Z (42 winter cases) zonal wind std temperature zonal wind

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Changes to EPS implemented July 10, 2007 a) New physics / New dynamics / Horizontal resolution 20 GEM members (SEF not used in the new EPS)‏ Horizontal resolution: 0.9° Model lid: 10 hPa Forecasts up to 16 days Inclusion of two stochastic components in the physics Multi-parameterization approach... ENKF – True 4D with FGAT like innovations, 0.9° Harmonization with NCEP for NAEFS

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report New Set-up for EPS b) Stochastic physical tendency perturbations All physical tendencies on horizontal winds, temperature, and humidity of each member are multiplied by a random function: –Defined in the range [0.5, 1.5] –With a decorrelation time scale of 3 hours –And a decorrelation length scale of ~1700 km

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report New Set-up for EPS c) Stochastic kinetic energy backscatter algorithm Numerical models are over-dissipative near the truncation limit This likely inhibits upscale energy transfer that can affect the large scale flow It is thought that this phenomenon can be a cause of under-dispersion in EPSs Parameterization: Inject energy near the truncation limit to compensate for the over-dissipation

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Comparison between the former and new EPS Mean of errors Error of the mean Ensemble spread Tropical RMS Scores Thin lines : New EPS Thick lines: Old EPS Tropics

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Major increment to assimilation systems: more observations in 4D-Var – May 2008 AIRS & SSMI radiances Dynamic bias correction for all radiance data ✓ More low level AMV’s ✓ QuikSCAT ✓ Additional AMSU/MHS at larger scan angles Removed due to time:  GPS Occultations from COSMIC, CHAMP and GRACE  Metop ATOVS: AMSUA & MHS  SSMI/S radiances  3 hourly sfc data  More levels from radiosondes and aircraft  Revised background & observation error statistics

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Summary of the new components AIRS radiance data (87 channels). SSM/I radiance data (+ eliminating AMSU-A ch3 and new cloud mask for AMSU-B). Going from RTTOV7 to RTTOV8.7 (and new vertical interpolation) Inclusion of high scan angle AMSU data. QuikScat oceanic surface winds (from KNMI). 3.9 micron AMV (nighttime low level winds). Dynamical bias correction for all radiance data. Current operational assimilation and forecast system ~35 km resolution global forecast model (GEM with 800x600 points and 58 eta levels). 4DVAR global assimilation with 6 hour window. 15 km regional forecast model over North America (58 eta levels). 3DVAR FGAT regional assimilation with 6 hour spin-up cycle launched from global cycle every 12 hours (or 6).

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Data volumes (typical for 6 hour) ~50% Increase of assimilated data Operational SystemNew data RAOBS Aircraft Profilers 8000 Surface GOES 5000 SatWind AMSU-A AMSU-B SSMI QuikScat AIRS SatWind 1500 AMSU-A AMSU-B 5000 Total ~240000Total ~120000

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Recent NWP verification

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Recent NWP verification

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Next version of global system Hybrid vertical coordinate, 80L, lid 0.1hPa Li & Barker Radiation scheme Hines non-orographic GWD New error statistics (Buehner) Additional AMSU and AIRS channels, IASI ? AMSU/MHS from Metop GPS-RO: CHAMP, GRACE, COSMIC, GRAS ASCAT SSM/IS CSR data with RTTOV – 5 GEO Bias Correction above 10 hPa Target: Spring 2009

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report GEM STRATO global model GEM- Operational GEM-Strato No. of points horizontal 800 x 600 (33 km) Vertical coordinate Eta (normalized sigma) Hybrid No. of levels in vertical 5880 Top10 hPa0.1 hPa Sponge del 2 at top (wind and temp) 4 levels6 levels (to 1 hPa) No diffusion on mean zonal wind Tropical sponge layer 4 levels From top to 50 hPa 8 levels From top to 3 hPa

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Impact of GPS-RO (with, without) at 300hPa Gain of ~2 h NH and ~3-4 h SH at days 3 to 6 70-day winter cycle SHNH

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report GEM-STRATO (0.1 hPa) vs. Operational (10 hPa) (both with new data types and GPS-RO) NH Winter H forecasts UV GZT T-Td UV GZT T-Td SH Winter

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Currently assimilate GOES W,E WV channel at 3h intervals Testing 1h interval WV chan. data for 5 geo satellites (2 GOES, 2 Meteosat, MT-SAT) Additional channels may be included (New) To be added this year (2008) Geostationary Radiances O-P (K) Meteosat W Std Mean Mean (uncorrected) 2 1 0

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Currently assimilate QuikScat Monitoring of ASAT is underway Assimilation cycles are starting QuikScat and ASCAT from KNMI Metop ASCAT

New CMC SST ANALYSIS Bruce Brasnett Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Canadian Meteorological Centre September, 2008

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Data Sources AVHRR17 & AVHRR18 via ftp from PO-DAAC (retrievals from Naval Oceanographic Office) AMSR-E via ftp from Remote Sensing Systems Inc. A/ATSR via ftp from ESA (ATS MET data) Ships, drifters and moored buoys Using OI on 1080x540 grid (0.33 deg) Once a day Published in Sept. 08 QJRMS, 134

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Analysis error estimates using Argo floats. HRDOI is the National Climatic Data Center product, RTG is the NCEP product and MGDSST is the JMA product

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Multi-Product Ensemble - Departure from median of 10-member ensemble (CMC vs. RTG(NCEP), Sept ) from: ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/daily/ens/index.html

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Multi-Product Ensemble - Departure from median of 10-member ensemble CMC vs. OSTIA (UKMO) Sept from: ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/daily/ens/index.html

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Monitoring Web sites User: monitoring PW: CMC

NAEDEX-21 Asheville, NC. – September 17-19, 2008 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report