WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MONITORING AND PREDICTION OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS Hiroshi SATODA Japan Meteorological Agency Tsu Local Observatory

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) WATCHING EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS Japan Meteorological Agency Analysis Anomaly charts ( o C) Advisories/ recommendations to improve reporting practice Synoptic and climatological reports WMO/CBS Lead Centre Quality Check Trend in anomalously high/low temperature frequency Japan high low Number of events per year 2 Public Policy makers NMHSs NMHS: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) Monitoring of the current status of the climate system CLIMATE SYSTEM MONITORING Atmospheric circulation Oceanic conditions Tropical convection etc Global Observing System Objective analysis 3

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) MONITORING OF DISASTERS AND EXTREME EVENTS Wet Jul Hot, dry, forest fire Jun-Sep Dry Jun, Drought Jun-Jul Hot Jun-Jul Dry Jun Drought Jun-Jul Wet Jul,Oct Wet, typhoons May-Nov,Dec Storm,wet Oct Cold Jun-Jul Wet May-Jun Hurricanes Aug-Sep Wet Jan-Feb Wet Jul,Aug Cyclones,storm Apr-Oct Hot Jun Heat wave, Forest fire Jun-Jul Cyclones Mar Cold Jan,Feb Dry Oct Drought Sep-Nov Cold Dec-Jan Stormy snow Nov Forest fire Oct Global extreme climate event chart (Extreme events in 2004) Press reports on natural disasters Climate system monitoring Flood Forest fire Drought Amagi Agricultural Office Cool summer 10 Sep 2003 Iwate Prefecture 4

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) EUROPEAN HOT SUMMER 2003 Temperature anomalies (1-12 Aug 2003) 500 hPa circulation (1-12 Aug 2003) 850 hPa circulation and temperature (1-12 Aug 2003) Issued a report of JMA’s views on the status of the high temperature in Europe on 13 August 2003 Meet requirements for information on the status and mechanisms of extreme events 5

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) ENSEMBLE SEASONAL PREDICTION Slightly different initial conditions Numerical prediction with the supercomputer Set of predictions (ensemble prediction) AnalysisPredictions Temperature anomaly Below normal Above normal Normal 20 %30 %50 % Probabilities of anomaly With the ensemble prediction method … (1) probability predictions can be issued; and (2) accuracy will increase with model improvement. 6

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) Mean surface temperature in the last 1000 years (Northern Hemisphere) Global mean temperature lower estimate （ 1.4 ℃） Global mean temperature upper estimate （ 5.8 ℃） GLOBAL WARMING AND EXTREME EVENTS IPCC Third Assessment Report Very likely: Higher max temperature and more hot days (all land) Higher min temperature and fewer cold and frost days (all land) Reduced diurnal temperature range (most land areas) more intense precipitation events (mid-/high- lat land) Likely: Increased summer drying, risk of drought (mid-lat continent) Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind and precipitation Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events 7

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) Projection of regional climate change by 2100 Projection of global climate change by 2100 GLOBAL WARMING PROJECTION surface temperature change precipitation change Researchers of impact assessment on temperature change precipitation change (Jul) Forestry Agriculture Terrestrial ecosystem Disaster risk management Health … 8

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) ACTIVITIES OF TOKYO CLIMATE CENTER Monitoring of Global Climate System Global Dynamical Prediction Monitoring of Extreme Events Asia-Pacific NMHSs Provision of Basic Climate Data and Products ENSO Outlook Graphic information Grid Point Values Technical Assistance Capacity Building Activities Global Warming Projection Requirements Graphic information General users 9

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005) THANK YOU. © Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005