Thunderstorm nowcasting, short-range forecasting, and warning for aviation by Dennis Stich, C. Forster, A. Tafferner, M. Köhler, I. Sölch, and T. Gerz.

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Thunderstorm nowcasting, short-range forecasting, and warning for aviation by Dennis Stich, C. Forster, A. Tafferner, M. Köhler, I. Sölch, and T. Gerz 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th ECAM Reading, United Kingdom, 9 - 13 September 2013

Thunderstorms as weatherobjects with multiple object attributes > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Thunderstorms as weatherobjects with multiple object attributes Cb top: conv. turbulence, lightning activity, etc. detected by satellite (Cb-TRAM) Cb bottom: hail, icing, lightning, heavy rain, turbulence, etc. detected by radar (Rad-TRAM) Picture by Martin Köhler, DLR Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum

Combination of data sources through fuzzy logic: > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting Surface Analysis POLDIRAD Lightning Radar tracker Cloud tracker Combination of data sources through fuzzy logic: Decision finding technique allowing for parameter ranges instead of fixed thresholds Takes into account the meteorological experience and concepts as well as local effects weather object specification oriented at user requirements Initiation Track Nowcast Forecast forecast validation forecast validation Object Comparison Object Comparison SYNSAT COSMO-DE & Ensemble Local forecasting SYNRAD

Cb-TRAM - Cumulonimbus TRacking And Monitoring > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Cb-TRAM - Cumulonimbus TRacking And Monitoring Used MSG (rapidscan) data: WV 6.2 IR 10.8 IR 12.0 HRV Detection stages: 1: Convection Initiation (CI) development in HRV IR 10.8 cooling 2: Rapid development WV 6.2 rapid cooling (> 1K/15min) 3: Mature storms T 6.2 - T 10.8 HRV texture Lightning (LINET) Extrapolation up to 60 min (here 30 minute nowcast plotted) Description: Zinner et al., 2008,09 & 13 Detection stages: 1: Convection Initiation (CI) development in HRV IR 10.8 cooling 2: Rapid development WV 6.2 rapid cooling (> 1K/15min) 3: Mature storms T 6.2 - T 10.8 HRV texture Extrapolation up to 60 min (here 30 minute nowcast plotted) Description: Zinner et al., 2008,09 & 13

CI postprocessing with additional data > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 CI postprocessing with additional data LINET data & ingredients describing moisture, instability, and lift: equivalent potential temperature θe KO-Index vertical motion ω in 500 hPA Generation of a CI forcing value for each CI detection with fuzzy logic CI forcing values can be translated into a statistical probability of further development Lowest probabilities can be filtered The probability of further development is an additional information which can be treated as a kind of confidence level assigned to the CI detection

Cb-TRAM: area of application > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Cb-TRAM: area of application

Rad-TRAM - Radar Tracking and Monitoring > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Rad-TRAM - Radar Tracking and Monitoring Based on DWD radar data: RX and EURADCOM Black contours: areas > 37 dBZ Dotted contours: 60 min nowcast Tracking and nowcasting based on pyramidal matching like in Cb-TRAM Available every 5th minute

Rad-TRAM EURADCOM for TMA MUC Rad-TRAM RX for Germany > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Rad-TRAM: area of application Rad-TRAM EURADCOM for FABEC (Functional Airspace Block European Central) Rad-TRAM EURADCOM for TMA MUC Rad-TRAM RX for Germany

Automated thunderstorm warnings (AutoAlert) > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Automated thunderstorm warnings (AutoAlert) Aims: Raise situational awareness Presentation of the same information to describe the current situation to all stakeholders at an airport to support CDM Automated generation of text with attachment of the current Rad-TRAM-image for the TMA – 24/7 availability ~ 120 users at Airport MUC at DFS, FMG, Lufthansa, DWD, TUIfly, AirBerlin, All Nippon Airways… Applicable not only at MUC, but for each airport where Rad-TRAM and lightning measurement data are available

> EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 AutoAlert example with additional information interactively edited (in red) DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, 20 June 2012, Gewitterwarnhinweis um 14:40 UTC ********************************************************* Es wurden Gewittertops bis ca. 14 km Höhe und länger anhaltender Hagel beobachtet. Gewitterzelle Nr. 281 etwa 31 km von MUC entfernt wird laut Prognose in 50 Min. den Flughafen MUC treffen. Weitere Gewitterzellen weniger als 100 km von MUC entfernt. Betroffene Bereiche: NW, SW, SE Mittlere Zugrichtung aller Zellen: nord-oestlich Zur Erläuterung: Gewitterzellen sind schwarz umrandet (Bereich mit Starkniederschlag). Die Verlagerung nach 60 Minuten ist mit einem Pfeil und einer schwarz-weiß gestrichelten Linie markiert. Blitze (LINET) sind mit blauen Kreuzen markiert. Weitere Informationen: Siehe Anhang, MetFROG und http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/nowcasting/ (User: nowcasting, Passwd: drizzle) Mit freundlichen Grüßen, das Gewitterteam des DLR Instituts für Physik der Atmosphäre Feedback, Fragen und Anregungen bitte an cb-team@dlr.de Tel.: 08153 28 3174 oder 01853 28 1218

Cb indicator forecasts up to 6 hrs (Cblike) > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Cb indicator forecasts up to 6 hrs (Cblike) Fuzzy logic combination of CAPE, 500 hPa vertical velocity, synthetic satellite and radar data from the DWD COSMO-DE model Cblike 6 hrs forecast for 21 June 2012 18:00 UTC Cb observation 21 June 2012 18:00 UTC White contours: Cblike indicator exceeding a certain threshold Pink contours: Rad-TRAM cells Blue crosses: Lightning data (LINET)

Short-range limited area NWP (COSMO-MUC) > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Short-range limited area NWP (COSMO-MUC) For seemless prediction of airtraffic relevant phenomena Nowcasting COSMO-MUC COSMO-DE Forecast skill Nowcast NWP Theory (60 min) (30 min - 4h) (3h +) Forecast lead time

Experience in the framework of Wetter & Fliegen > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Experience in the framework of Wetter & Fliegen MUC COSMO-EU COSMO-MUC Height [m] ~360 km P2P Glide path Glide path positions (GPP)

Thank you for your attention! > EMS & ECAM 2013 > Dennis Stich > September 2013 Thank you for your attention! contact: dennis.stich@dlr.de 25% 50% 75% Best possible Cb description through 3D-polarimetric radar, lightning, satellite, LLWAS; Fuzzy logic: convective initiation, intensity, life cycle Output: Cb object 3D with attributes. Extrapolation including trend in 3 dimensions by fuzzy logic Combination. Extrapolation 2-D only, no vertical extent, no trend, indication of severity. Output:Cb object 2 D with attributes Calculation of probability of occurrence of Cb with certain intensity by fuzzy logic combination of extrapolation and model forecast Decrease of information detail over forecast time (Tafferner et al., 2012)