According to the UN, world population is expected to grow to 9.2 billion by the year What challenges do you see if this prediction proves accurate?

 Students should be able to predict future population trends.  Students will discuss consequences / challenges based upon future population trends.  Students will fully comprehend the 4 phases of the Demographic Transition Model.

 China1.3 Billion  India1.2 B  USA313 Million  Indonesia246 M  Brazil203 M  Pakistan187 M  Bangladesh159 M  Nigeria155 M  Russia139 M  Japan126 M

 India 1.7 Billion  China 1.3 B  USA 403 Million  Nigeria 390 M  Indonesia 293 M  Pakistan275 M  Brazil223 M  Bangladesh194 M  Philippines155 M  Democratic Republic of the Congo149 M

 Phase #1 – Pre Industrial  High Birth Rates  High Death Rates  Slow Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)  Usually associated with poor public health measures like lack of sanitation.  AKA – Less Developed Countries, 3 rd World Countries

 Median Age – 18.1  Life expectancy at birth –  Total fertility Rate – 5.97 children / woman

 Phase #2 – Transitional  High Birth Rates  Death Rates Fall (Higher Life expectancies)  Rapid Rise in the RNI  Associated with improved economic and social conditions

 Median Age – 26.5 years  Life expectancy at birth – years  Total Fertility Rate – 2.58 children per woman

 Phase #3 – Transitional  Birth Rates Begin to Fall rapidly  Death Rates Fall slightly  RNI begins to level off  In an urbanized and industrial society people begin to see the benefits of smaller families.

 Phase #4 – Industrial  Low Birth Rates  Low Death Rates  RNI is relatively flat or even in slight decline  Usually associated with highly industrialized and highly urbanized countries.

 Median Age – 44.8  Life expectancy at birth –  Total fertility Rate – 1.21 children / woman

 Migration of people from rural areas to urban areas.  Growth of cities.  Currently about 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas.  This number is increasing at a rapid rate throughout the entire world.

 When the urban population grows more quickly than support services such as housing, transportation, waste disposal and water supply  Fairly common in 3 rd World Countries

 English economist, Malthus is best known for his hugely influential theories on population growth.  Believed that populations would eventually expand beyond their capability to feed themselves.  Population correction

 Founding Father of the Green Revolution.  Worked with Mexican scientist and farmers to increase wheat production.  His work has helped to prevent widespread starvation in many parts of the world.

 Also sometimes called “1st world countries”.  Characterized by high economic development and low Birth Rates  Core countries often found in the Northern Hemisphere

 Also sometimes called 3 rd world countries.  Characterized by low economic development and high Birth Rates  Periphery countries often found in the Southern Hemisphere

 Illegal developments of makeshift housing on land neither owned nor rented by the inhabitants.  Fairly common in many LDC’s or 3 rd World Countries

 Many of the participants in Brazil’s world famous Carnival come from the Favelas.  Read the following article from TIME magazine: ime/world/article/0,859 9, ,00.html ime/world/article/0,859 9, ,00.html

 Students should be able to predict future population trends.  Students will discuss consequences / challenges based upon future population trends.  Students will fully comprehend the 4 phases of the Demographic Transition Model.