Energy, Economic Growth and the Environment John Barrett University of Leeds

Scale of the challenge Source: IPCC (2014)

UK Climate Challenge

UK Emissions 2012 – 2100 to achieve equitable 2 degree benchmark with 67% probability 97% reduction by 2050 Comparison of 2 degree equitable reduction with CCC budgets 67% reduction by 2027

Global trade Source: Barrett et al (2013)

Global trade Source: Barrett et al (2013)

Global trade Source:

Energy demand Source: DUKES (2015)

Energy demand Source: DUKES (2015)

Energy demand Source: DUKES (2015)

Energy demand

EU Energy Flows

Linking energy to the global economy

Direct Efficiency Options Improvements in material efficiency Heat transfer Fuel substitution

Direct energy efficiency options Source: Climate Strategies (2014)

Direct energy efficiency options Source: Climate Strategies (2014)

Industry rebound effects Source: Saunders (2013)

Energy services efficiency approach Lean Production Service business models Waste recycling and reduction Circular economy Material substitution Public sector procurement Lifetime optimisation Good to services Reducing waste

Findings inefficiencies – the car Material manufacturing 5 – 15% Vehicles manufacturing 20 – 25% Car use 50 – 80% Material Car occupancy 40 – 60%

Resource efficiency strategies Source: Barrett and Scott(2012)

Policy Options IPCC Summary: Based on Figure 10.15

Policy Options Economy wide approach Materials tax Energy demand target and tax / market Sector response Construction (NIPs, Allowable Solutions) Vehicles (Weight regulations, VAT exemptions) Consumer solutions Mandatory warranties Goods to services

Extending existing policies Current regulationPossible additionAdditional requirements EcoDesign Directive Within current scope to set requirements to address some aspects of embodied emissions, including minimum guaranteed product lifetimes and promoting modularity, upgrading and repair (European Union 2009). More appropriate methods to be used for preparatory studies in the EcoDesign Directive, which used more recent data, accounted for technology development and took into account product lifetimes. Energy Performance of Buildings Directive Extend current requirements to include embodied energy in the integrated energy performance of buildings (Szalay 2007). Standardisation of the calculation of embodied energy for building elements and processes. Vehicle Emissions Performance Standard Extend standards to include whole- lifetime emissions (Correia et al 2014). Standardisation for the calculation of embodied emissions for vehicle elements and processes.

Extending existing policies Climate policy Operational emissions Embodied emissions Embodied emissions originating in EU ETS sectors Emissions outside scope of EU climate mitigation policy EU Non-EU Annex I Non-Annex I EU ETS 1.9 billion tonnes Vehicle emissions standards 12% of the EU's emissions of CO Ecodesign Directive The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive 36% (commercial and residential only = 15%)

Distribution effects

Adaptive dynamic policy Source: Haasnoot et al (2013)

Further research Economics of material efficiency – Implications for jobs, GDP, trade, investment, deficits Development of a macro-economic model Establishing industry responses to changing business models Policy responses to material efficiency Responses to changing in the construction sector Case study analysis of different industry responses from construction, car manufacturing and household durables Agent based modelling of key actors from EU and national policy making organisations Development of a bottom up and top down model of building types