1 “Security” in the EEA forward-looking studies Global megatrends analysis and regional security implications of climate change, 7-8 December 2010

2  Regarding the definition of security and environment  EEA work  Way forward- examples

3 freedom from fear freedom from want protection and empowerment freedom from hazard impacts

4 EEA Security issues appear in the EEA assessments in different forms, ie: Water security Energy security Food security Resource security With no naming

5 uncertainties complex and dynamic environment forces of future change PROJECTIONS SCENARIOS What are the prospects for the environment in the pan-European region? what if...

6 Security as a driving force PRELUDE scenarios - EEA: two scenarios are triggered by food security or energy security crises Security as uncertainty Security as an objective for the future Global scenarios to Schell explore the three forces: market incentives communities and regulation by the state. Three main forces drive towards different objectives: efficiency, social cohesion, and justice and security. The forces display elements of mutual exclusivity. UNEP's Global Environment Outlook (GEO) scenarios 1.Markets First 2.Policy First 3.Security First 4.Sustainability First 1. Low Trust Globalisation – security and efficiency 2. Open Doors 3. Flags — security and community values Source: Shell, Evolved Society Scenario 2.Europe of Structure (Clustered Networks Scenario) 3.Europe of Innovation (Lettuce Surprise U Scen.) 4.Europe of Cohesion (Big Crisis Scenario) Source: EEA, 2007b and

7 Forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans In particular the role of consumption and production patterns Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns

8

9 SOER 2010 Global megatrends Security is a key issue in the megatrends development in the future: –Intensified global competition for resources –Decreasing stocks of natural resources –Resources supply security –Increasingly severe consequences of climate change –food, water, health, ecosystem services security Security impacts of megatrends development in the future –From an unipolar to a multipolar world –Increasing global divergence in population trends – populations aging, growing, migrating –Living in an urban world –Disease burdens and the risk of new pandemics

10 SOER 2010 Synthesis Resource overexploitation and changes in climate affect quality of life, potentially undermining social and political stability and sustainability of local ecosystem services (livelihoods of people). Combined with demographic pressures, decreasing socio ecological resilience can add a new dimension to the environment and security debate, as conflict around scarcer resources is likely to intensify and add to migration pressures.

11 Way forward - Example 1 Global megatrends – links to security Analyses from National Intelligence Council, US: Global megatrends impacts to national security Aging of population will pose budget challenges (decide on guns or wheel chairs) and manpower shortages for Europe and Japan: -if EU and Japan do accept large scale migrations – could lead to ethnic and racial tensions and xenophobic policies which will influence global governance - Failure to deal with this challenges in EU an Japan will lead to slowing down of global economy -Youth cohorts in emerging economies, rapid economic growth and urbanization: -If China and India fail to manage this, it could influence radical political movements, internal instability, international terrorism -Increased migration, travel and trade are likely to accelerate the transfer of infectious diseases These impacts are not inevitable, as there are many uncertainties we need to deal with and policy options we can choose.

12 Way forward- Example 2 Analyses of pathways and archetypes Environment is contributor, but less than political, economic, historic… factors Global megatrends analyses showed that in the future environment will play increasingly important role. Only case studies approach, no systemic conclusions. Further empirical studies needed –Why critical constellations escalated into the conflict (the role of environment)? Analyse archetypes of these critical constellations Quantitative methods can contribute to recognition of linkages between structural components but are not sufficient to address complex relations which can not be modelled and can be address only by interdisciplinary teams Environment stress floods,droughts lack of arable land, water, air pollution, shortage of fuel wood Socio- economic context PathwaysImpacts to security economic decline (more for poor than for rich) Migrations Social fragmentation Inequality Erosion of civil society Curtailment of the state Urban violence Conflicts Wars Interantainal Local communities tensions Cause-effect chain Archetypes of critical constellations

13 Thank you

14 Regional workshops: EE, CA,… Global workshop OSCE security implications of climate change – scenarios UNEP GEO UNEP ASEF NATO ENVSEC EEA Global driving forcesScenarios

15 NR scarcity Consumption Climate change impacts - regional in wider Europe water security food securityenergy security resource security Human security (wars, international legal disputes, intercommoned tensions, exacerbated tensions..) Global Megatrends (STEEP driving forces )