Trade and the global economic crisis Richard Baldwin Graduate Institute, Geneva 18 December 2008 BERR, London.

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Presentation transcript:

Trade and the global economic crisis Richard Baldwin Graduate Institute, Geneva 18 December 2008 BERR, London

Ebook Baldwin&Evenett (eds) Started 24 Nov (17 scholars from around G20, 1 Dec deadline); posted 4 Dec; 10 Dec WTO launch. Three points of consensus in Ebook: 1)Use macro not trade measures 2)Wrap up Doha “Modalities” 3)Establish WTO/IMF surveillance mechanism. => World has changed already

Trade system stress Your anxiety level. Crisis coming to EMs via trade acc’t (manuf); to the developing via commodity prices. Fact: Not EM Keynesian trade shock; Manuf. sector; stimulus limited effectiveness due to unbundling. Fact: Riding the tiger; EMs must react. –Many new ways boost jobs. Fact: Protectionist US Congress. Fact: Anger at US causing recession. My nightmare: “Echo Chamber”.

Trade system stress Even without nightmare … Ruined atmospherics for trade talks & climate talks. “Temporary protection” turns permanent? G20 is largely about confidence building. –G20 failed on Doha Modalities, so they need to do something else on trade. –It’s time for “Plan B”

Our “Plan B” Last week’s Vox column stressing: 1)Early harvest (trade facilitation). Something for rich, EMs and developing. 2)Monitoring/Surveillance. WTO/IMF/ITC? 3)Modern BOP clause Crisis Safeguard.  World has changed already This crisis: impossible & improbable.

Lamy & Plan B 17 December 2008, Trade Negotiations Committee, WTO press release. Director-General Pascal Lamy told the Trade Negotiations Committee on 17 December 2008 that “concluding the Round should remain our focus in 2009 but this endeavour takes place within a more global portfolio of WTO activities”. He proposed action “on the wider WTO front” like monitoring trade measures taken in relation to the financial crisis, trade finance and Aid for Trade.

Concluding G20 gov’ts needs to boost confidence of consumers and investors that governments can get their arms around the crisis. On trade … –G20 should support Lamy’s Plan B. –Help develop “early harvest”. –Support monitoring/surveillance of new trade measures. –Provide leadership in Doha talks.

8 End For more analysis & daily updates see:

Falling Trade flows

Rising tariff protection ITC data Share of trade in HS6 categories with higher average tariffs in 2008 vs 2007

But bindings may help WTO bindings + FTA ‘commitments’ Joe Francois numbers (VoxEU.org 17/12/08)

Francois numbers