© Crown copyright Met Office Atlantic MOC Variability in Decadal Climate Prediction Systems Holger Pohlmann, with contributions from M. Balmaseda, N. Keenlyside,

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Presentation transcript:

© Crown copyright Met Office Atlantic MOC Variability in Decadal Climate Prediction Systems Holger Pohlmann, with contributions from M. Balmaseda, N. Keenlyside, D. Matei, W. Müller, P. Rogel, and D. Smith

© Crown copyright Met Office Content 1. Motivation 2. Overview of Experiments 3. AMOC Variability AMOC in Decadal Predictions 5. Conclusions

© Crown copyright Met Office 1. Motivation (Pohlmann et al., JoC, 2004 and 2006) Idealized Experiments with ECHAM5/MPIOM: Time (years) MOC anom. (Sv) OHT anom. (PW) Atlantic MOC and Ocean Heat Transport ºC Atlantic MOC (30°N) Predictability 95% AR-1 Cor MOC (Sv)

© Crown copyright Met Office 1. Motivation (Pohlmann et al., JoC, 2009) NoAssim ECHAM5/MPIOM initialized with GECCO (T&S): Assim (black) Hindcasts years 1-5 (blue) Hindcasts years 6-10 (green) NoAssim (red) Cor AMOC (48°N) Period (years) 95% MOC (Sv)

© Crown copyright Met Office 2. Overview of Experiments From ENSEMBLES and other projects: Institute ModelAssimilation Hind- and Forecasts period (ens size)(start dates x ens size) ECMWF IFS-HOPE (5)1960, 65, …-2005 (10x3) CERFACS ARPEGE-OPA (9)1960, 65, …-2005 (10x3) INGV ECHAM4-OPA (3) IFM-GEOMAR ECHAM5-MPIOM (3)1955, 60, …-2005 (11x3) MOHC HadGEM (3) MOHC DePreSys PPE (9)1960, 61, …-2005 (46x9) MOHC DePreSys (1)1960, 65, …-2005 (10x10) MPI ECHAM5-MPIOM (1)1952, 53, …-2001 (50x1) MPI ECHAM5-MPIOM (2)1960, 61, …-2001 (42x1) MPI ECHAM5-MPIOM (1)1948, 49, …-2007 (60x1)

© Crown copyright Met Office 3. AMOC Variability Assimilation Experiments: AMOC* (45°N) *(3yr running means)

© Crown copyright Met Office Assimilation Experiments: AMOC* (45°N) 3. AMOC Variability *(3yr running means)

© Crown copyright Met Office 3. AMOC Variability Assimilation Experiments: AMOC (40°N) AMOC (26°N) AMOC (45°N)

© Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions Multi-model mean: AMOC (45°N) 95% correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed)

© Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions Hindcasts NoAssim correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed) 95% DePreSys PPE (AMOC 45°N):

© Crown copyright Met Office AMOC (40°N) AMOC (26°N) Multi-model mean: 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed) 95%

© Crown copyright Met Office AMOC (40°N) AMOC (26°N) Multi-model mean: 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed) 95%

© Crown copyright Met Office correlation (red) 1.0 – rmse (blue) persistence (dashed) 95% AMOC (45°N) 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions What is causing the problem in the 1990s?

© Crown copyright Met Office AMOC (45°N) in Each System: 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions CERFAS ECMWF IFM-GEOMAR DePreSys XBT corr. (dotted)

© Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions CERFAS ECMWF IFM-GEOMAR DePreSys XBT corr. (dotted) AMOC (45°N) in Each System: North Atlantic Heat Content:

© Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions MPI MPI coarse MPI-NCEP DePreSys PPE AMOC (45°N) in Each System:

© Crown copyright Met Office 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions AMOC (45°N) in Each DePreSys PPE Member: (1) (7) (5) (4) (2) (6) (3) (9) (8)

© Crown copyright Met Office What is causing the problem in the 1990s? 4. AMOC in Decadal Predictions DePreSys PPE: Assim NoAssim => The hindcasts heading in general towards NoAssim

© Crown copyright Met Office Conclusions Assimilation Experiments: When the AMOCs at 45°N are normalized we find a signal in the ensemble mean of increasing strength from the 1960s to the 1990s and a decrease thereafter. This signal matches observed variations in NAO, SPG, and LS convection. Hindcast Experiments: Multi-model ensemble predictions are skilful up to about 5 years. Beyond the 5 years the AMOCs of the the DePreSys PPE hindcasts follow their transient experiments.

© Crown copyright Met Office Questions?