Australia Through The Looking Glass Craig James Chief Equities Economist, CommSec, July 2009 pictures courtesy of www.alice-in-wonderland.net.

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Presentation transcript:

Australia Through The Looking Glass Craig James Chief Equities Economist, CommSec, July 2009 pictures courtesy of

Important information This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the information in this seminar, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN AFSL (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN and a Participant of the ASX Group. Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.

An alternate world of surprises, challenges and rewards…  Global recession…but healing process begins  China lifts, US stabilises, Australia more confident  Inventories, tighter terms, cash-flow issues  Winners & challenges  Winners…home buyers, building trades  Challenges…finance-dependent firms  Still hurdles to clear

Global recession…hits Australia  One moment boom, next moment bust… hope rests with emerging nations…especially China

…but encouraging signs  Boom to bust…then recovery… major hopes rest with China

Australia…on the mend  Aggressive stimulus  Recession avoided  Confidence improves  Housing stronger  And unemployment?

Housing & infrastructure lead the way…  Home building set to rebound… China, population & stimulus drive infrastructure

Conservative consumers

All eyes on the job market  Companies flexible on hours & pay …not hiring, not firing…… Gen Y reaction

So where to for interest rates?  Longer-term rates lift, highlighting confidence… …but at what point does policy respond?

Aussie dollar…winners & losers  ‘Parity parties’ one moment… …into the barrel but out the other side

Optimism or exuberance?  Perception that the worst is over… but have investors got too excited?…

Shares: Fate in others hands  Tight correlation with US… but doesn’t exist forever

Important signposts  Sharemarket turns before economy…jobs in focus

Recovery watchlist  US housing over-supply  US banking system  Commercial property  Rising fuel prices  Inflation/deflation  US dollar & debt  Geopolitical – North Korea

CommSec forecasts