Using SIMPPLLE to address questions: Has our management altered how a landscape is developing? How would a landscape have changed without our actions? Can the managed landscape ever return to “historic conditions” SIMPPLLE *Work was originally done in Feb 04, modifications made to show potential to address cumulative impacts

Using FRAGSTATS with SIMPPLLE output to provide quantification of landscape patterns. SIMPPLLE Three metrics selected for comparison purposes only

Fortine drainage – Kootenai National Forest approximately 25,000 acres SIMPPLLE

Current landscape is the result of significant level of clearcut harvest systems. SIMPPLLE

How do Fragstats metrics of the current landscape compare to what existed prior to harvests What will be the metrics of a future landscape as a result of the harvesting and the continued application of fire suppression? What are possible values of historic landscapes that include levels of mountain pine beetle and fire processes? SIMPPLLE How different is the future landscape as described by the metrics from possible historic landscapes? Would the metrics of a future landscape without the harvesting (but with disturbance processes) be different?

Current size class converted to a grid of 5 acre cells Very large Medium Openings Large pole

Future size classes from a 50 year SIMPPLLE simulation with harvest (5 acre cells) Very large Medium Openings Large pole

Preharvest size classes converted to 5 acre cells Very large Medium Openings Large pole

Preharvest size classes converted to 5 acre cells Very large Medium Openings Large pole need to simulate forward without harvest but with expected natural processes

Simulated mpb activity that would have occurred without harvesting Simulated mpb activity that has occurred with harvesting.

Simulated stand replacing fire with harvest. Simulated stand replacing fire without harvest – but with fire suppression. Modeling of fire suppression may be too effective so ---

Simulation of fire without suppression showing impact of mpb activity without harvest on the fire processes

Three historic size classes from SIMPPLLE simulations Very large Medium Openings Large pole Created historic starting with preharvest conditions

The “shape range” metric for the entire landscape of the current and future fall well below that of any simulated historic landscape. The trend from the current to the future is for a continued decrease. SIMPPLLE Would need to add what the current and a future would be without the past harvest With harvest

SIMPPLLE The harvesting created a class metric for “shape range” greater than any simulated historic value. However the future trend is for a rapid decrease below any simulated historic value. With harvest Would need to add what the current and a future would be without the past harvest

SIMPPLLE The harvesting created a class metric for “area range” greater than any simulated historic value. However the future trend is for a rapid decrease below any simulated historic value. With harvest Would need to add what the current and a future would be without the past harvest