National Transportation || || Presentation at 15 th TRB Planning Application.

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Presentation transcript:

National Transportation || || Presentation at 15 th TRB Planning Application Conference, Atlantic City, NJ, 5/17~21, 2015 Integrating Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Agent-Based Travel Behavior Models for Cumulative Land Development Impact Analysis Lei Zhang 1, Zheng Zhu 2, Chenfeng Xiong 2, Xiqun Chen 3, and Xiang He 2 1.Associate Professor and Director of the National Transportation Center; 2. Graduate Student; 3. Research Scientist; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Maryland Contact: ; 1

National Transportation || || Background Research Objectives Integrate agent-based behavior model (AgBM) with dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) to capture individual behavior changes and traffic dynamics Real-World Application: Cumulative land development impact study along the I- 270 and MD 355 corridor in Montgomery, Maryland 2

National Transportation || || Overview of Model Integration 3

National Transportation || || Application in Maryland 4

National Transportation || || Study Area 5 MWCOG CoverageMWCOG Model in DTAlite Legend Freeway Arterial Subarea

National Transportation || || and 2030 Networks Network Mileage # of inter- sections # of trips (million)

National Transportation || || New Sector Plans along I Rockville Silver Spring Bethesda Legend Sector Plans City Names Road Way Rockville Gaithersburg GREAT SENECA SCIENCE CORRIDOR WASHINGTON GROVE SHADY GROVE WHITE FLINT GROSVENOR

National Transportation || || Population Change Total POP: 2010: 1,152, : 1,366,428 Silver Spring

National Transportation || || Employment Change Total EMP: , ,083

National Transportation || || Land Development Scenarios 2010 Base Case Scenario 2010 scenario without any sector plan development 2030 Scenario 2030 scenario with all sector plan developments Only considers routing and traffic congestion changes 2030 Scenario After Behavior Switch 2030 scenario with all sector plan developments Consider traffic congestion and all behavior changes 10

National Transportation || || Overall Development Impact Cumulative Development Impact of All Sector Plans along the I-270/MD 355 Corridor 11 Year2010 Base Case 2030 w. Development 2030 After Switch Num. of Trips 426,958493,308 Avg. Travel Time (min) (33%)24.5 (22%) Avg. Travel Time Index (25%)2.05 (15%) Avg. Speed (mph) (-12%)34.0 (-6%)

National Transportation || || Traffic Congestion Comparison 12 National Transportation || || AM Density 2030 AM Density

National Transportation || || Peak Spreading Impact 13 National Transportation || || The Duration of the AM Peak Period will Increase by 45 Minutes.

National Transportation || || I-270 SB Travel Time by TOD 14 National Transportation || ||

National Transportation || || Changes in Destinations/Routes 15 National Transportation || || Diverting from I-270 and MD 355 to ICC and I-495 (Southbound Traffic, AM Peak) Legend Through traffic Diverting traffic 1: ICC 2: I-495 Unit: 1000 trips Change I-270 Thru % MD355 Thru % I-270 Divert % MD355 Divert % Change I-270 Thru % MD355 Thru % I-270 Divert % MD355 Divert % Legend Through traffic Diverting traffic

National Transportation || || Summary 16 An integrated modeling tool for individual or cumulative land development impact analysis (and ICM, ATM, and TSM&O applications) Builds on 4-step travel demand, agent-based travel behavior, and dynamic traffic assignment models Considers local and regional traffic impact Shows traffic impact by intersection, by corridor, by subarea, and by time of day (min-by-min) Incorporates behavior responses such as routing change, traffic redistribution, peak spreading, and modal shifts Visualizes results with easy-to-understand graphs and animation

National Transportation || || Thank You! Questions, Comments, and Suggestions are Welcome. Please Contact: Lei Zhang, Ph.D. Associate Professor Director, National Transportation Center Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 1173 Glenn Martin Hall, University of Maryland College Park, MD Phone: Web: Center: 17