Chapter 9

 What happens if we exceed carrying capacity of Earth?  Population and individual consumption determine the carrying capacity for humans.  Human growth is on a J curve. Why?  Adaptability  Modern agriculture  Death rates dropped (sanitation, health care, education)  The increase in the word population is due to the sharp decrease in death rate rather than a sharp rise in births!  Unevenly distributed world wide  Developed 0.17%/year  Developing 1.4%/year (UN World Population Sheet 2010)

 Histograms of age and population  Pre-reproductive  Reproductive  Post-reproductive  % of world population was under 15  30% in developing  16% in developed  1-4 on the planet  These 1.8 billion people will hit reproductive ages in the next 14 years, thus most population growth will occur in developing countries  Seniors are fastest growing  65 and older in senior  How will we support them?  30 seniors/100workers 2025 by /100

 Graying of America-Baby Boom  Japan by % of population will be 65 or older  By 2020 China will start graying  Care of elderly  Decline work force  Funds to support older population-larger share of health care cost  Decreasing tax base

 Baby bust or death boom  Threaten economic growth  Labor shortage  Less tax revenue  Less entrepreneurship and business formation  Less likelihood of technology development  Increasing deficit of pension and health care costs  Pensions cut and retirement age increased

 Countries with the highest TFR usually have the greatest hunger  There is enough food, but distribution is uneven  Conflict also influences food distribution  Economics  Stable populations promote economic development  Resources  Urbanization

 Populations are increasingly concentrated in cities  Developed countries grew slow enough that the infrastructure grew with them  Developing countries grew and are growing so fast that infrastructure does not grow with them  Shantytowns with no proper sanitation, water, or services  Homelessness  UN in million homeless or live in unacceptable condition worldwide  78 million in India alone  643,067 in US

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1. Reduce poverty through economic development and education 2. Elevate status of women 3. Encourage family planning and reproductive health care All evident in transition stages!

 Modern technology will raise per capita income  Means for health care and family planning  Better quality of life

 Women tend to have fewer children  when educated  Have the ability to control fertility  Earn income  And live in societies that do not suppress their rights

 Educational planning and clinical services  Provide information on birth spacing. Birth control, and health care for women and infants  Family planning reduces population and abortion rates  Family planning is responsible for a drop of 55% in TFR in developed countries (UN population division) from 6.0 in 1960 to 2.7 in 2010  Studies show that each dollar spent on family planning in countries like Thailand, Egypt, and Bangladesh saves $10-16 in health, education, and social services by preventing unwanted births.

 Still problems  UN population Fund 42% of all pregnancies in less developed countries are unplanned and 26% end in abortion  2007 that half in US is unplanned and result in 1.4 births and 1.3 million abortions  201 million couples in less developed countries want to limit their children and determine spacing, but lack access to family planning  Family planning could prevent 52 million unwanted pregnancies, 22 million abortions, 1.4 million infant deaths, and 142,000 pregnancy related deaths EACH YEAR! Could reduce population by 1 billion by 2050 at an average cost of $20 a couple.

 Most populous country in the world 1.3 billion  Between China’s birth rate has been cut in half TFR  Strict from then relaxed and now uses education  With 2.1 US is growing faster than China

 Family planning in 1952 with modest success  million now 1.2 billion (2 nd largest)  32% under 15  By 2015 it will be most populous in the world  4 th largest economy and growing middle class  Severe poverty, malnutrition, and environmental problems. Will grow with population growth.  1-4 live in slums in urban populations  2/3 live in rural villages with little progress and prosperity  ¾ live on $2.25 a day (China has half the poverty and environmental problems with more population)  Government promotes smaller families  Male preference  Need children to work for them in old age  9/10 have access to birth control but only 48% use it (China 86%)  17% of the people but 2.3% of the world’s resources  Will economic growth help?