PLS 121: American Politics and Government Political Science What is Science?

2 / 23 The Story Thus Far… So far: –The Communist Manifesto Today: –Some nomenclature to help us understand some of the aspects of science. Next Time: –The philosophy of science and how we know when something is science.

3 / 23 Some Nomenclature Theory Fact Law Hypothesis Operationalization Causation

4 / 23 Theory Primary means of understanding the interactions in the world General understanding of the relationship between the variables Requirements in science: –General –Deal with a large set of related results –Produce empirical hypotheses

5 / 23 Fact A generally agreed-upon interpretation of a phenomenon by competent observers Example: –The United States and Iraq were at war between January 17 and February 27, 1991.

6 / 23 Law A statement, with narrow scope, that has yet to be proven false –If ever shown to be false, it is totally discarded Much narrower in scope than a theory, often focusing on one set of phenomena Example: –Modern democracies do not war with other modern democracies.

7 / 23 Hypothesis A proposed answer to a research question An empirical statement about a relationship between empirical variables

8 / 23 Hypothesis The statement creates a partition of the world of possibilities: –Events that support the statement –Events that conflict with the statement –Events that have nothing to do with the statement

9 / 23 Hypothesis Requirements: –Empirical Observables –Falsifiable The set of conflicting events cannot be empty –General Must apply to more than just one instance

10 / 23 Hypothesis Example: –Free states are less likely to initiate militarized interstate disputes. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

11 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –Norway did not go to war with Luxembourg in Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

12 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –The United States should withdraw its forces from Iraq. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

13 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –Democracies elect their political representatives. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

14 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –States that adhere to International Law are more likely to use international institutions to settle interstate disputes. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

15 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –Since 1972, states deemed free do not use violent force first in a conflict. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

16 / 23 Hypothesis Example? –The freer the market, the freer the people. Checklist: –Empirical –Falsifiable –General

17 / 23 Operationalization Each hypothesis contains at least two concepts Operationalization defines those concepts in empirical terms

18 / 23 Operationalization Example: –Democracies do not war with other democracies –Definitions: A democracy is an independent state that elects its effective rulers. War is an interstate conflict in which more than 1000 combatants die.

19 / 23 Operationalization Example? –State governments that use direct democracy are better for their residents. –Definitions: State governments refer to the governments of the 50 US states. Direct democracy refers to the initiative, referendum, and recall processes. Residents are those who live in the state.

20 / 23 Causation When we say something causes something else, what do we mean? How do we show that A causes B? –‘Show’, ‘demonstrate’, ‘suggest’, but not ‘PROVE’. Requirements: –Exceptional Correlation –Theoretic Feasibility –Temporal Precedence

21 / 23 Causation Example: –Electing liberal governments causes the terrorist groups within the state to reduce their violence. –Checklist: Exceptional Correlation Theoretic Feasibility Temporal Precedence

22 / 23 Causation Example? –It has been shown that increases in ice cream sales always precede increases in the violent crime rate. –Checklist: Exceptional Correlation Theoretic Feasibility Temporal Precedence

23 / 23 Assignment Write five hypotheses –Just scientific hypotheses, no need for operationalization now These hypotheses will be shared during class on Wednesday For this assignment ONLY: –Write your hypotheses using 16 point font (Arial or Time NR). Why? –The overhead projector needs that size to project well