Why Are We Pushing for Aggressive Federal Rules to Reduce National/Regional NOx, SO2 and Hg Emissions? NACAA Board Meeting July 31 to August 2, 2010 PREPARED WITH AN EPA DISCUSSION OR BRIEFING IN MIND

2 Six Highest Priority Categories The Priority Sectors –EGUs –Tougher On-Road Standards (NOx and VOC) –ICI Boilers –Cement Kilns –Marine Engines –Locomotives “A+” level of controls Why? … What’s Our Logic? Multi-Pollutant Sector-Based Controls

3 Understanding How Transport Really Works Every bad ozone day, in the morning hours, a large cloud or reservoir of ozone sits above Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down. –Based upon real, measured data –Ozone levels in the reservoir are routinely measured at 60 to 100 ppb. –In the morning, ozone levels at the surface are very low (10 to 20 ppb). Around 10:00 or 11:00 – when the nocturnal inversion breaks down - the ozone (and any precursors) in the reservoir mix down to the surface and degrade air quality. Every bad ozone day, in the morning hours, a large cloud or reservoir of ozone sits above Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down. –Based upon real, measured data –Ozone levels in the reservoir are routinely measured at 60 to 100 ppb. –In the morning, ozone levels at the surface are very low (10 to 20 ppb). Around 10:00 or 11:00 – when the nocturnal inversion breaks down - the ozone (and any precursors) in the reservoir mix down to the surface and degrade air quality. Ozone as an Example The Transport Cloud... or the Elevated Ozone Reservoir Could the reservoir be much larger ???

4 The Transport Cloud A Regional Cloud of Pollution - Crashing Down to Earth Measured ozone at aloft monitors in the 60 to 90 ppb range all night long All monitors, ground level and aloft, record ozone levels that are almost identical to what was measured all night long at the aloft monitors

5 How Do We Reduce the Transport Cloud? The NOx SIP Call as an example –OTAG collaboration in late 90’s –EPA finalizes SIP Call in 1998 –Very significant regional NOx reductions across the East in the 2003/2004 timeframe –Dramatic drops in ozone levels Similar story for SO2 controls and PM The NOx SIP Call as an example –OTAG collaboration in late 90’s –EPA finalizes SIP Call in 1998 –Very significant regional NOx reductions across the East in the 2003/2004 timeframe –Dramatic drops in ozone levels Similar story for SO2 controls and PM

6 55.5% of Units 22.3% of Units Controls From the NOx SIP Call Phase I Minimal SCR Units Expect Minimal NO x Reductions Phase II Large Number of SCR Units Installed Expect SIGNIFIANT NO x Reductions Especially after Air Quality should decrease dramatically Data courtesy of The Institute of Clean Air Companies (ICAC).Institute of Clean Air Companies 77.8% of Units Installed between Scheduled Startup Units

7 Regional NOx Emission Reductions Dramatic regional NOx emission reductions in the 2003/2004 time frame NOx reductions from Tier II/LEV II standards also – very gradually - occurring in this same period Dramatic regional NOx emission reductions in the 2003/2004 time frame NOx reductions from Tier II/LEV II standards also – very gradually - occurring in this same period NOx Reductions at NOx Budget Program Sources Thanks: EPA Clean Air Markets

8 Reducing O3 in the Transport Cloud Average ozone levels in the elevated reservoir before 2004 Average ozone levels in the elevated reservoir after 2004

9 Maryland’s 1-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year

10 Maryland’s 8-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year

11 Very Preliminary Ozone Modeling Very rough, preliminary OTC “Screening” modeling – Thanks to NYDEC From a 2007 Base Three scenarios –50% NOx and 30% VOC cuts across all states and all sectors in domain –70% NOx and 30% VOC cuts across all states and all sectors in domain –Federal Measures “Plus” Run Tried to mimic federal rules and local controls being targeted by OTC –“Top 6” Federal Measures across domain »65% cut to stationary NOx »75% cut to on-road mobile NOx (includes post-2007 Tier II benefits) »35% cut to area NOx »30% VOC »In total about a 55% NOx and 30% VOC run –Additional 5% NOx in all OTC states

12 Results – Toughest Monitors in the East NON ATTAINMENT AREAS Monitored Design Value After 50% NOx & 30% VOC Run After 70% NOx & 30% VOC Run After Federal Measures “+“ Run New York - Bayonne NYC/Queens Philadelphia - Camden Bristol Cleveland/A/L -Mayfield Eastlake Columbus - Albany HS Washington - River Terrace Baltimore - Edgewood Getting closer … But still more to do. Majority of monitors < 65ppb

13 Reducing Regional NOx Emissions Works The 6 Priority Categories Represent About 75% of the NOx Left to Regulate

14 The Fine Particle/SO2 Story Similar to Ozone –Regional reservoir of SO2 and PM dominates the East’s problem –Summertime SO2 “westerly” transport dominates Mid-Atlantic PM levels and acts pretty much like Ozone for westerly transport However … –More complex chemistry –Different behavior at night Little debate over the regional nature of SO2 piece of the PM problems in the East

15 Eastern State - SO 2 Controls Some controls driven by Title IV Some controls driven by early CAIR Source: EPA Clean Air Markets

16 SO2 Emission Reductions Thanks: EPA Clean Air Markets

17 Maryland Annual PM 2.5 Trends (μg/m3) Current Annual Standard

18 Maryland PM Hr Trends (μg/m3) Current Daily Standard

19 Reducing Regional SO2 Emissions Works The 6 Priority Categories Represent About 85% of the NOx Left to Regulate

20 What Has This Meant to Maryland? 1-Hour OzoneAnnual Fine ParticulateDaily Fine Particulate8-Hour Ozone *2008 data are preliminary.

21 Just a Little on the Mercury Story Another Major Issue to the States –Joint effort between state water and air programs 319 G Process initiated by Northeast states just beginning Moving towards 4 State/Federal Partnership efforts –National and local controls –Product stewardship –Global/International efforts –Communications

22 Clearly a National Problem Thanks: EPA 319G Meeting

23 U.S. Mercury Emissions (2005) Thanks: EPA 319G Meeting The 6 Priority Categories Represent About 75% of the 2005 national Hg emissions

24 So … Let’s work together on “A+” Multi-Pollutant control programs for the highest priority sectors –We need to do whatever we can to further reduce regional NOx, SO2 and Mercury emissions –Many lives to be saved Again - The Priority Sectors –EGUs –Tougher On-Road Tailpipe Standards (NOx and VOC) –ICI Boilers –Cement Kilns –Marine Engines –Locomotives These categories represent –About 85% of the SO2 that is left to regulate –About 75% of the NOx that is left to regulate and –About 75% of the 2005 national mercury emissions

25 Benefits Many lives to be saved –EPA has estimated the improvements in public health resulting from just the 2004 NOx SIP Call Up to 1800 lives saved through 2008 Significant health benefits to asthmatics and other individuals with lung disease Dramatically help states with old and new Ozone, PM, NO2 and SO2 SIPs Multiple other benefits –Haze/Visibility, Chesapeake Bay, Mercury, other toxics, etc.

26 Next Steps ?Consider a NACAA resolution or letter? ?Have appropriate NACAA Committees develop recommendations on what “A+ Multi-Pollutant Controls” means for 6 priority categories? –Include EPA? –Build from earlier NACAA work and other information LEV III CARB analyses of Locomotives and Marine Engines and LADCO/OTC work on EGUs and ICI Boilers. ?Push for earlier state involvement in national rules as co-regulators? Discussion