ESPON ESPON „ The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazards in general and in relation to climate change“

Addressed hazards and used indicators

Risk index

Key research questions:  What is the degree of vulnerability of different types of European regions to climate change?  How and to which degrees are the different sectors of regional and local economies as well as regional and local infrastructures going to be affected by climate change?  What could be social and cultural implications of the aforementioned possible developments?  Which mitigation and adaptation measures could be applied in the different types of European regions to cope with climate change?  How can territorial policies contribute to mitigation (e.g. what are necessary requirements for more sustainable transport modes)?  Are there potential new development opportunities for European regions in the wake of climate change?  What are territorial potentials for the mitigation of climate change in different types of European regions?  Are there potentially new types of regions emerging, revealing the same characteristics regarding both, their adaptation and their mitigation capacities? ESPON CLIMATE - Climate Change and Territorial Effects on Regions and Local Economies ( )

9 Methodological concept (Füssel & Klein 2006) Action 2.1 Actions 2.2/2.3 Action 2.4 Action 2.5

Assessment of climate change exposure through factor analysis Factor 1: Complex factor of increase in annual temperature, increase of tropical days, decrease of summer precipitation Factor 2: Complex factor of decrease in frost days, increase in heavy rainfall, increase in winter precipitation

Assessing sensitivity against heat waves Classification <= 14,9 %low ,9 %medium >= 30 %strong Indicator 1 Percentage of area used for housing, industry and infrastructure % Indicator 2 Percentage of elderly persons % Classification <= 18,9 %low ,9 %medium >=21 % strong I 1 I 2 lowmediumstrong low (1) medium (2) strong (3) medium (2) Strong (3) strong (3) strong strong (3) strong (3) strong (3)

Aggregated sensitivity map

Aggregated impact maps weak pot. Impacts strong pot. Impacts Problems related to summer situation Problems related to winter situation

– 2005 The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazards in general and in relation to climate change“ 2004 – 2006 ARMONIA – Applied multi risk mapping of natural hazards for impact assessment 2006 – 2008 MIDIR – Multidimensional integrated risk governance concept 2007 – th RF Marie Curie Training Network “Mountain Risks - from prediction to management and governance” 2007 – 2009 BMVBS MORO “Raumentwicklungsstrategien zum Klimawandel” (Spatial planning response strategies to climate change) 2008 – 2010 BMBF “ILEWS - Integrative early warning systems for landslides” 2008 – th RFP MOVE - ”Improvement of methods for vulnerability assessment in Europe” 2009 – 2012 European Spatial Planning Observation Network Applied Research Project “Climate change and territorial effects on regions and local economies” (Coordinator) 2009 – 2010 DG Environment INCA - “Integration of civil protection and spatial planning though agreement on common objectives” 2009 – 2010 BMVBS ExWoSt “Klimawandelgerechte Stadtentwicklung” (Climate-proofed urban development) (Coordinator) 2009 – 2011 ERA NET CRUE “IMRA - Integrative flood risk governance approach for improvement of risk awareness and increased public participation” (Coordinator) Relevant ongoing research activities Relevant research at IRPUD

15 Thank you for your attention Prof. Dr. Stefan Greiving