GHG metrics in the WGIII contribution to the AR5 Bonn, 03 April 2012 Jan Minx, Steffen Brunner & Ottmar Edenhofer johnthescone

IPCC principles a comprehensive and scientifically sound review of the relevant literature; the identification of disparate views for which there is significant scientific or technical support; and a policy-neutral presentation of the scientific content in a manner relevant to policymakers. Assessment Approach 2

Challenges for WGIII assessment: No scientific resolution of value dissent Impossible to distinguish facts and values neatly High potentially fundamental uncertainties associated with long-term policy choices Implications for WGIII assessment: Communication of uncertainties both in quantitative and qualitative dimensions Transparency of contested value-laden assumptions and implicit value judgments Assessment approach 3

IPCC and other scientific assessments Division of labour at the science-policy interface 4 Adapted from: Edenhofer and Kowarsch, 2012

The WGIII Assessment: Exploring the Solution Space – a mapping exercise 5 Goal A Goal C Goal B Start

The Four Parts of the AR5 WG III Outline Part I Introduction Part I Introduction Part II Framing Issues Part II Framing Issues Part III Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change Part III Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change Part IV Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance Part IV Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance 6

The Working Group III Assessment as a Cartography Exercise Part I Introduction Part I Introduction Part II Framing Issues Part II Framing Issues Part III Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change Part III Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change Part IV Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance Part IV Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance 7 The legend to the map: Explain concepts and methods of assessment The map: Map out feasible mitigation option Assess trade-offs Navigation tools: Assess policy instruments, institutional arrangements and finance options

AR5 WG III Outline 1. Introductory Chapter 8 2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies 3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods 4. Sustainable Development and Equity 5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation 6. Assessing Transformation Pathways 7. Energy Systems 8. Transport 9. Buildings 10. Industry 11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning 13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments 14. Regional Development and Cooperation 15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions 16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues IV: Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance III: Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change II: Framing Issues I: Introduction No dedicated chapter or Section on metrics in the Plenary approved Working Group III outline of the AR5

Where will metrics be covered? 1. Introductory Chapter 9 2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies 3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods 4. Sustainable Development and Equity 5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation 6. Assessing Transformation Pathways 7. Energy Systems 8. Transport 9. Buildings 10. Industry 11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning 13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments 14. Regional Development and Cooperation 15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions 16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues IV: Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance III: Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change II: Framing Issues I: Introduction

Be explicit about how metrics are used Conceputal clarification of alternative emission metrics and their relationships – including both physical and more comprehensive economic metrics Communicate underlying uncertainties and value judgments Establish relationship alternative emission metrics to purpose of analysis Quantiative comparisons and/or assessment of numerical values for alternative metrics as appropriate Assessment of metrics in context of WGIII contribution to AR5 10

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