EGU General Assembly , April 2011 Vienna Marek Giełczewski, Mateusz Stelmaszczyk, Mikołaj Piniewski, Tomasz Okruszko Warsaw University of Life Sciences Department of Hydraulic Engineering Stakeholders’ participation in the water scenarios development process Narew River Basin case study

Outline of the presentation Introduction to research settings and to study area Methods Results  Main drivers  Present and future state of water system  Backcasting – how to reach future state?  Quantification for modelling purposes Conclusions

Introduction – research settings Part of research of the 6 EU Framework IP project SCENES „Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States” Similar methodology applied for three levels: pan- European, regional and local (pilot areas) 10 Pilot Areas located in the different regions Narew River Basin, one of the Pilot Areas

Introduction - Narew River Basin

Methods - general Five steps: 1. Characterising present and near future; 2. Looking at the future (developing visions); 3 Critical review of developed visions; 4. Playing it back; 5. Quantification for modelling purposes Scenario development workshops: four workshops were organized in the NRB during Stakeholders participation: more than 40 people representing various sectors participated in the workshops Combination of different methods: qualitative methods (card-technique, discussion groups and collages), semi- quantitative methods (Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, spidergrams and time trends) and method to link qualitative storylines with quantified scenarios were used

Methods – applied card-technique - defining present drivers playing the most important role spidergrams - setting up the importance of the drivers Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) - recognition of present and future situation collages - drawing the future visions storylines - elaborating the future visions to give a new insight and understanding of such a complex system as the NRB backcasting procedure – finding out the possible ways to reach selected objective (a desired future state) to be reached by 2050 by casting back from this end point time trends – determining potential magnitude of changes in values of the selected characteristics questionnaire – translating the selected issues from the storylines into quantified drivers to be used for hydrological modelling with the SWAT model

Results – main drivers and their importance Driver C1; Flood protection4,9 4,7 C2; Water quality in lakes6,47,4 C3; Water-sewage management 8,4 7,9 C4; Nature valuable areas7,4 8,4 C5; Spatial planning6,98,3 C6; Melioration systems6,44,8 C7; Agriculture influence on water status 7,86,9 C8; Agriculture5,36,9 C9; Tourism6,18,1 C10; Role of forest5,36,2 C11; Transboundary co- operation 4,4 5,4 C12; Water retention7,37,1

Results – main drivers and their importance The most important drivers according to the stakeholders, concerning the present state of the NRB were: C7: Impact of agriculture on water resources, C3: Water-sewage management, C4: Natural valuable areas and C12: Water retention. In the future situation driver C7: Impact of agriculture on water resources is losing its strength, when the factors such as C2: Water quality in lakes, C5: Spatial planning and C9: Tourism become more important.

Results - Present state of water system - FCM The most often related drivers: C8: Agriculture, C9: Tourism, and C4: Nature valuable areas, but also C5: Spatial planning and C12: Water retention Relatively large number of relationships between drivers Many relationships also have feedback. Defined relationships were relatively strong PRESENT SITUATION

”Fast track” scenarios - Global scenarios Solidarity/Pro-activeSelf-interest/Reactive Regional Global Markets First Policy First Security First Sustainability First

Results - Sustainability First scenario – collages, FCM, storylines The crucial driver is: C4: Spatial planning, that will, in a combination with C12: Legal and formal issues, set up a frame for this scenario Many elements associated with Policy First scenario Most plausible and desirable scenario Agriculture and Tourism will stay as most important sectors PRESENT SITUATION SUSTAINABILITY FIRST MARKET FIRST SUSTAINABILITY FIRST

Results - Markets First scenario – FCM, storylines Not likely to happen. Will require a push by an external factor to go this direction The same drivers Agriculture, Tourism and Spatial Planning are important but different, economical driven, directions of development Takes into account the later second phase when there will be turn into more pro- environmental direction PRESENT SITUATION SUSTAINABILITY FIRST MARKET FIRST

Results – Sustainability First scenario - backcasting

Results – Markets First scenario - backcasting

Results – Backcasting The same issue selected – good water status – for both scenarios, extra indication that this is the main issue in the Narew River Basin; in SF the goal is reached by 2035 than even improvement, in MF is just reached in 2050 – optimistic approach; large importance of education, societal awareness, legal and monitoring issues – importance of ‘soft’ development; need for a leading force to perform changes, especially in SF scenario.

Results – Quantification for modelling During the last workshop stakeholders were asked about qualitative trends in selected drivers of the SWAT model (as group work) and about the quantitative meaning of previously elaborated linguistic terms (in individual questionnaires). The questions focused on the future changes in: (1) land use (especially agricultural and built-up areas); (2) amount of mineral/organic fertilisers applied in agriculture; (3) percent of irrigated grasslands and drained arable land; (4) amount and treatment level of municipal and industrial wastewater. During the 4 th workshop stakeholders were asked about qualitative trends in selected drivers of the SWAT model (as group work) and about the quantitative meaning of previously elaborated linguistic terms (in individual questionnaires). The questions focused on the future changes in: (1) land use (especially agricultural and built- up areas); (2) amount of mineral/organic fertilisers applied in agriculture; (3) percent of irrigated grasslands and drained arable land ; (4) amount and treatment level of municipal and industrial wastewater. The Table and Figure aside (on the left) present the answers to one of the questions: What will be the future change in forested area?

Results – Quantification for modelling What will be the future change in forested area? Scenario SFMF"No scen." Regions Upper Narew Biebrza Masurian Lakes Lower Narew Scenario SFMF"No scen." Regions Upper Narew Biebrza Masurian Lakes Lower Narew Scenario SFMF"No scen." Regions Upper Narew Biebrza Masurian Lakes Lower Narew Scenario SFMF"No scen." Regions Upper Narew Biebrza Masurian Lakes Lower Narew Scenario SFMF"No scen." Regions Upper Narew Biebrza Masurian Lakes Lower Narew During the 4 th workshop stakeholders were asked about qualitative trends in selected drivers of the SWAT model (as group work) and about the quantitative meaning of previously elaborated linguistic terms (in individual questionnaires). The questions focused on the future changes in: (1) land use (especially agricultural and built- up areas); (2) amount of mineral/organic fertilisers applied in agriculture; (3) percent of irrigated grasslands and drained arable land ; (4) amount and treatment level of municipal and industrial wastewater. The Table and Figure aside (on the left) present the answers to one of the questions: What will be the future change in forested area? During the 4 th workshop stakeholders were asked about qualitative trends in selected drivers of the SWAT model (as group work) and about the quantitative meaning of previously elaborated linguistic terms (in individual questionnaires). The questions focused on the future changes in: (1) land use (especially agricultural and built- up areas); (2) amount of mineral/organic fertilisers applied in agriculture; (3) percent of irrigated grasslands and drained arable land ; (4) amount and treatment level of municipal and industrial wastewater. The Table and Figure aside (on the left) present the answers to one of the questions: What will be the future change in forested area?

Conclusions (1) The participatory scenario development process seems to be an efficient tool for formulating possible future visions for water management related issues. This process was accepted by the stakeholders, since it stimulates thinking in a systematic way and helps to structure all the elements of scenario development process. The stakeholders were involved in the scenario development process. It also gives an opportunity to share and discuss opinions with the stakeholders coming from different institutions and fields.

Conclusions (2) The similarity of the results achieved by different stakeholders’ groups shows that the proposed methodology works well for the situation when all involved groups have the same starting point (set of the main drivers) and represent similar level of expertise. However, there is a question how much the results would have differed if parallel groups of the stakeholders had been working fully independently. Scenarios quantification for modelling purposes is feasible but only limited number of elements can be parameterized.

Conclusions (3) In the case of the Sustainability First scenario the elaborated results represent very well the present and future situation of the Pilot Area in a general sense. Combination of aiming for sustainable development with relatively strong impact of the policy regulations is regarded by many stakeholders (including policy and decision makers) as the most plausible and desired future development for the NRB since many years already. The Market First based results well represented the opinion of the stakeholders if this scenario were to happen. However, in the opinion of the participants it is very unlikely that it will happen. Such future development seems to be not plausible at the moment and as it was stressed by the participants, only a strong external factor could push the development of the NRB in that direction.

Conclusions (4) Climate change appears to be a minor factor shaping the future of water in the Narew River Basin in the view of the stakeholders. However, a robust information on impact of climate change at the local scale is not sufficient. Bringing such information and combining it with developed water scenarios is necessary to achieve a comprehensive future vision for the region.

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