Workshop 2 – Inclusive development ITAN project – Lessons learnt from the European Neighbour Regions (ENRs) Pierre BECKOUCHE (CIST) ESPON Open Seminar 2014 “Opportunities and threats for territorial cohesion: Blue Growth and Urban Poverty”

Neighbourhoods: a attempt to ‘EU compatible’ indicators 2 Inclusive development  basic data on the Neighbour regions (Similiar to NUTS 2 or 3)  harmonised data so as to compare them to the Espon territories  a few composite indicators compatible with EU indicators of territorial development:  a “local HDI”  a “international openness” indicator (← ports’ international maritime traffic) The ITAN database sets up:

Local HDI: national and regional territorial discrepancies 3  National disparities, e.g. Ukraine v. Russia; Israel v. rest of near East  Regional disparities, e.g.  Mediterranean Western Balkans v. hinterlands  Western Turkey v. rest of country  Greater Tunis v. rest of country  Northern & central Algeria v. South  Classic littoral / hinterland issue Inclusive development

 All Neighbouring countries have opened their economy, especially since the 1990s  In their national territory, the role of their gateway cities (international ports, airports, business services) has been rising  Deepening trade deficit & lower tariffs  decline of financial resources for the State  not a clear benefit for the major part of population and territories of the Neighbour countries A rising international openness… 4 Merchandise trade % imports + exports / GDP Opportunities & challenges

 Baltic region very much polarised by EU countries  Ukraine exports more and more to the CIS and not to EU  Maghreb’s international maritime flows are focused on EU but less and less  Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean less and less polarised by the EU  Did EU benefit from the Neighbour countries’ international openness?  as for EU’s trade balance: YES  as for EU’s share in these countries’ foreign trade: NO A rising international openness … but not always with the EU 5 Opportunities & challenges % of Europe in the international port traffic

Transports: a broader vision of the region EU + ENRs… 6 Demographic density &main transport network Connexity Opportunities & challenges

7  In the Neighbourhoods, high potential markets in the dense coastal areas (e.g. Egyptian delta)  High accessibility in the costal Maghreb, namely thanks to the proximity of the European shore  The Black Sea area as a quite high accessibility spot (from Istanbul region to South Ukraine)  Possible to build the ”international openness territorial indicator” Accessible population within 3 hours Opportunities & challenges … & a possible calculation of accessibility thus openness

Building a composite indicator of “international openness” 8  Goal: addressing the crucial issue of international connection (in particular to EU) of local territories of the Neighbourhoods  Three components: number of air seats available in international flights (2012), volume of international maritime flows by port (2011), FDI (average )  Two methods: non-weighted / and weighted by time-distance accessibility Foreign direct investment International air traffic International port traffic Additional evidence needed

International openness (non weighted approach) 9 Non weighted approach:  highlights the agglomeration effects: the areas where airports and ports are located benefit from these infrastructures as a motor to participate in the global economy  Result: impressive position of North-Western Turkey  Result: international openness of Israeli territories  Result: low international openness of the Maghreban territories despite their high potential accessibility to the European territory  important avenues for territorial development there Geography of international openness SNUTS 2 level, around 2010 Additional evidence needed

International openness (weighted approach, case of ports) 10 International Port traffic, 2012 Values weighted by the time-distance to Ports Additional evidence needed Weighted by time-distance to international transport facilities (including EU) approach:  highlights accessibility: territories can benefit from large infrastructures if they have a short time-distance access to it (real networks speeds have been considered as well as border delays)  Result: except Croatia, the Western Balkans are poorly connected to international maritime traffic  Result: the long distances penalise the Russian territories  Result: strong position of the major part of Turkey except the Eastern  Result: large relegated territories in Maghreb except Northern Morocco  avenues for better logistic connection ports / hinterlands

European’s interest is that the whole map turns into red! 11 Connexity As a conclusion