NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 Access to Amphibious Watch and Forecast Report FIRST PAGE.

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NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 Access to Amphibious Watch and Forecast Report FIRST PAGE

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 The Amphibious Watch and Forecast Report : - is an electronic document displaying and analysing wave conditions relevant for amphibious warfare, - is updated daily according to new available information, - includes products derived from wave models. FREJUS ST AYGULF MODELS & CONTENT MAPS ST AYGULF FREJUS 72Z 48Z 24Z 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z MAPS 12/30Z36/54Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES GEOGRAPHIC COORDINATES Beach43°23’52’’ -6°43’55’’ Profile North43°23’42’’ – 6°44’42’’43°23’56’’ – 6°43’49’’ Profile South43°23’34’’ – 6°44’42’’43°23’49’’ – 6°43’48’’

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 GLOSSARY Hs (or H1/3) : Significant wave height (in meter). In classical situation, maximum wave height can be twice as big as Hs. Tp : wave peak period (in second). Period associated to the peak of energy in the wave spectrum. Dir or θ : mean wave direction (waves are coming from this direction, in degrees). σ : wave spreading (in degrees). MODELS & CONTENT MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z MODELS Hydro-dynamic The Mercator model is used to provide currents forecast over the West Mediterranean Sea. Wave The WaveWatch III model is used to provide sea state forecast over the Mediterranean Sea. A nested model using WaveWatch III is performed with a finer resolution to simulate wave conditions in a region covering the East of Corsica. A nested model using WaveWatch III is used to estimate wave conditions in the shallow water region St Aygulf. Models are daily driven with 1 hour wind forcing fields provided by ARPEGE01 (Day, 00Z run). Maps shown in this report are displayed with 6 hours time steps on 2-days forecast. CONTENT Product derived from hydro-dynamic model (daily, 3 days-forecast) NW MEDITERRANEAN SEA conditions - 2D fields of Sea Surface Currents (5m), from 24H to 72H with 24 hours time steps Products derived from wave models (daily, 2 days forecast) FREJUS conditions - 2D fields of Hs and Dir, from 12H to 54H with 06 hours time steps ST AYGULF conditions - 2D fields of Hs and Dir, from 12H to 54H with 06 hours time steps - Hs time series (00H to 96H) extracted at black dot locations

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 VALIDATION MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z PREVAG Performances on Mediterranean Sea Correlation coefficient (C): the correlation coefficient is a statistics value which brings out a link between two kinds of datasets. Here, we compare predicted significant wave height from PREVAG to observed significant wave height from wave buoys. Following correlation coefficients have been established by comparisons between predictions and observations over a two months period. Mediterranean Sea – high seas (LION and AZUR buoys) between 0 and 24h : C > 90% between 24 and 48h : C > 85% between 48 and 84h : C > 78 % Corse Nord (La REVELLATA buoy) between 0 and 48h : C > 95% between 48 and 84h : C > 88% These performances have been established at buoys locations. They decrease when on shallow waters. Côte d’Azur (NICE buoy) between 0 and 12h : C > 80% between 12 and 72h : C > 75% between 72 and 84h : C > 70% Côte d’Azur (PORQUEROLLES buoy) between 0 and 24h : C > 90% between 24 and 72h : C > 80% between 72 and 84h : C > 70% Quick look Validation

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 SEA SURFACE CURRENTS CURRENTS FORECAST CHARTS 72Z48Z24Z MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z The Liguro-Provencal current is established between the Gulf of Genoa and the Gulf of Lion with a flow between 0.1 to 0.5 knots. The flow weakens by 43.5N and reachs is maximum of velocity near the Hyeres Islands above 0.5 knots. OVERALL SITUATION No significant change TENDANCY TOMORROW

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 SEA SURFACE CURRENTS Sea surface currents (kts) date: 18/10/ H – echeance 24H CURRENT 24 72Z48Z24Z MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z Kts

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 CURRENT 48 Sea surface currents (kts) date: 18/10/ H – echeance 48H SEA SURFACE CURRENTS 72Z48Z24Z MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z Kts

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 CURRENT 72 Sea surface currents (kts) date: 18/10/ H – echeance 72H SEA SURFACE CURRENTS 72Z48Z24Z MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z Kts

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 FREJUS FORECAST CHARTS GLOBAL AREA 36/54Z12/30Z MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z OVERALL SITUATION : WIND: E 2 to 3B offshore, letting up ENE 1 to 2 tonight. Veering N durong the night. WIND SEA:Smooth wind sea. SWELL:No significant. TOMORROW : WIND:NNW light early in the morning, turning towards S, by breezy effect from the middle of the day. WIND SEA:Smooth. SWELL:No significant swell. TENDANCY : Light to moderate SW flow and smooth to slight sea state, with no significant swell.

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 LEGEND: in meters FREJUS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT date: 18/10/ H 36/54Z12/30Z 12Z 18Z 24Z 30Z SS GLOB AREA J MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 FREJUS 36Z 42Z 48Z 54Z SS GLOB AREA J+1 36/54Z12/30Z SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT date: 18/10/ H LEGEND: in meters MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 ST AYGULF FORECAST CHARTS TIME SERIE ZOOM1 12/18Z36/42Z 24/30Z48/54Z MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z OVERALL SITUATION : WIND:E light wind (2 locally 3B), veering NNW light yet overnight. WIND SEA:Smooth. SWELL:No significant swell. TOMORROW : WIND:Phenomenon of breeze. NNW from the start of the day, veering main S during the afternoon. WIND SEA:smooth. SWELL:No significant. TENDANCY : Light to moderate flow. Smooth to slight sea. Light southerly swell at the end of the term.

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 ST AYGULF 12-18Z ZOOM1 12/18Z36/42Z24/30Z48/54Z LEGEND: in meters MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z 12Z 18Z BEACH PROFILE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT date: 18/10/ H NORTHSOUTH

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October Z ZOOM1 ST AYGULF 12/18Z36/42Z24/30Z48/54Z LEGEND: in meters MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z 24Z 30Z BEACH PROFILE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT date: 18/10/ H NORTHSOUTH

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October Z ZOOM1 ST AYGULF 12/18Z36/42Z24/30Z48/54Z LEGEND: in meters MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z 36Z 42Z BEACH PROFILE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT date: 18/10/ H NORTHSOUTH

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 LEGEND: in meters 48Z 54Z 48-54Z ZOOM1 ST AYGULF BEACH PROFILE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT date: 18/10/ H 12/18Z36/42Z24/30Z48/54Z MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z 36/54ZNORTHSOUTH

NATO UNCLASSIFIED Tuesday, 18 October 2014 EPHEMERIDES MODELS & CONTENT MAPS 72Z 48Z 24Z VALIDATION CURRENTS EPHEMERIDES ST AYGULF FREJUS 12/18Z 36/42Z 24/30Z 48/54Z 12/30Z36/54Z MOONRISE 00 h 26 AZM: 075 MOONSET 14 h 33 the 19th AZM: 277 EPHEMERIDES SUNRISE 05 h 50 AZM: 102 SUNSET 16 h 46 AZM: 257 HOUR : ZULU TIME NIGHT LEVEL LEGEND NIVEAUX : BLACK NIGHT CLEAR NIGHT MOON PHASES