Mark Winfield York University July 2014 The Politics of Energy Conservation in Ontario

CDM and the 2014 Election

Politics of CDM Largely off the capital “P” political radar screen Largely off the capital “P” political radar screen Focus on TOU/Smart Meters Focus on TOU/Smart Meters –“Tax machines” Attention overwhelmed by other electricity issues Attention overwhelmed by other electricity issues –Gas plants –Nuclear costs –Wind turbine social conflicts

Politics of CDM Wynne shift in direction from renewables to CDM Wynne shift in direction from renewables to CDM

CDM Barriers in Ontario History of comparative advantage based on cheap electricity History of comparative advantage based on cheap electricity –Little real CDM effort until last decade Uncertainty about provincial commitment Uncertainty about provincial commitment Institutional fragmentation Institutional fragmentation Technical and economic barriers Technical and economic barriers –TRC –Revenue impacts

Conservation First (March 2014) Numeric targets, province-wide (OPA) and for LDCs (determined by OPA) Numeric targets, province-wide (OPA) and for LDCs (determined by OPA) –5% or 7 billion kWH less than 2014 consumption by OPA as regulator of LCD efforts OPA as regulator of LCD efforts –Implications of greater flexibility, not no clear indication LDCs can develop and implement own strategies.

Conservation First Enforcement mechanisms unclear Enforcement mechanisms unclear Still not pursuing all cost effective conservation Still not pursuing all cost effective conservation Still no clear commitment on upgrading standards and codes Still no clear commitment on upgrading standards and codes Role of conservation in environment of falling demand? Role of conservation in environment of falling demand?

Winfield et.al Falling demand and its Implications