Socio-economic reference scenarios: Introduction and scenario software (PoleStar and WEAP) Thomas E. Downing Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford

Overview Oh Scenario, oh scenario, what are you trying to tell us? Flexible scaling: PoleStar Water catchments: WEAP What is a benchmark study?

Scenarios: thinking about the future Why use a scenario? –Everyone else is doing it (or, we need to be consistent) –My stakeholders told me to (or, they have reference scenarios that are part of existing decision making) –To gain insight into indeterminate futures (or, to examine the interactions between local resource management and global climate change)

Top down Lots of options: –SRES –World Water –Business and trade councils –Second World Food Council –WHO projections Useful if: –Coping is a boundary condition imposed by external structures –Local decision makers use them –You don’t have time to do anything else

Bottom up Also, lots of options: –Local development plans –Local Agenda 21 –Environment action plans –Participatory visions (e.g., WRI 2020 project) Useful if: –Coping is an emergent property of a multi-actor system –Stakeholders are keen –You want to explore specific, local issues

Scenario software Integrated assessment models –Large, more feedbacks, aggregate regions Image, Targets Scenario accounting database –Varied scales, some consistency checks, user input of key variables Polestar, WEAP SEI Global Scenario Group System manual, tutorials, project reports

Polestar Polestar Main Menu * Multiple sectors * Current vs scenario * Indicators tracking targets

Regional disaggregation—world, country, regions… Household types—urban, rural… Sectoral detail—crops, energy sources…

WEAP

What is a benchmark study? International consistency with IPCC: choose one SRES benchmark International sectoral scenarios: Global Water Forum? National development planning: is there a reference scenario? DIY: build one or two with stakeholders –Seed with a general storyline –Stakeholders –Indicators –Consistency