NOAA National Weather Service Missouri River Forecaster’s Meeting Kansas City, Missouri November 2010 Ross Wolford Senior Operations Hydrologist Missouri.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

Advertisements

CBRFC Peak Flow Forecast Webinar April 9th, 2014 Greg Smith & Ashley Nielson These slides: Presentation are available.

Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006.

1 North Central River Forecast Center: An Overview of Operations and Mission Wisconsin River Post-Flood Meeting November 16, 2010.

Generating Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Modeling

National Weather Service Protecting Lives and Property NCRFC Support of Wisconsin’s Manure Management Advisory System Development and Production of a Decision.

Using 925 mb Temperatures to Improve Operational River Forecasts Ronald S. W. Horwood Meteorologist National Weather Service Northeast River Forecast Center.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Review of the 2009 Snowmelt and Rain Streamflow Forecasts & Snow Survey Advisory Team Ron Abramovich, Hydrologist Water Supply Specialist USDA Natural.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006.

NWS ~ NorthWest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist.

BUILDING STRONG ® South Platte CWMS Model Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting January 29, 2014 South Platte CWMS Model Missouri Basin Forecasters Meeting.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Seethu Babu Marketa McGuire Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Streamflow Regulation Projects 3.1 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant.

Kansas City Industrial Council Hydrology and Hydraulics

June 23, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 1 NOAA / CBRFC Water forecasts and data in support of western water management.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Water Supply Forecasting Method Michelle Stokes Hydrologist in Charge Colorado Basin River Forecast Center April 28,

2011 Peak Flows and Daily Forecasts CBRFC 2011 Stakeholder Forum November 3, 2011.

Water Supply Forecast using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Model Kevin Berghoff, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center Portland, OR.

CRFS March 30, Virgin River NWS-SWS: 90 NWS-ESP: (+8-15% El Nino weighted) NRCS daily: 80 NRCS statistical: 78 Coordinated: 80 / 195% median.

National Weather Service North Central River Forecast Center Mississippi River Forecast Procedure.

CBRFC April 2014 CUWCD Briefing/Meeting 1:30pm April 8, 2014 Ashley Nielson.

NOAA National Weather Service Forecaster’s Workshop Kansas City, MO January, 2010 Tom Gurss Development and Operations Hydrologist Missouri Basin River.

KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion model) Michael Schaffner Senior Service Hydrologist NOAA National Weather Service WFO Binghamton, NY Eastern Region.

Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Des Moines, IA – March 3, 2011 Andy Wood NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Also: John Schaake,

Drought in California How Did We Get Here and What Can We Expect This Year? November 7th 2014 APWA Sacramento Chapter Meeting Alan Haynes Service Coordination.

FLASH FLOOD PREDICTION James McDonald 4/29/08. Introduction - Relevance  90% of all national disasters are weather and flood related  Central Texas.

Streamflow Predictability Tom Hopson. Conduct Idealized Predictability Experiments Document relative importance of uncertainties in basin initial conditions.

Preliminary Applications of the HL-RDHM within the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Ed Clark, Hydrologist Presented July 26 th, 2007 as part of the.

Mississippi River Tri-Agency Meeting National Weather Service 1 COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency Meeting Mississippi River Basin AHPS UPDATE COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency.

National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Southeast River Forecast Center North Florida Visit July 17-20, 2006 Southeast River Forecast.

Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

National Weather Service 1 Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Forecast Center 18 November 2013 First Vinogradov’s Conference.

National Weather Service Products on the Internet Erik Heden Meteorologist NWS Weather Forecast Office Binghamton, NY Patti Wnek Service Coordination Hydrologist.

Missouri River Basin Forecast Brian Anderson Wyoming Area Office Meeting, January 20, 2010.

Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Lisa Holts.

NE Drought Conditions CARC Update: April 2010 Mark Svoboda and Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln Al Dutcher,

NWSRFS International Workshop October 23, 2003 River Forecasting Operations by Robert S. Cox 1 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center National Weather Service.

The NOAA Hydrology Program and its requirements for GOES-R Pedro J. Restrepo Senior Scientist Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA’s National Weather.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation 2015 Spring Flood Outlook National Weather Service Valley/Omaha National Weather Service Sioux Falls 1.

NWSRFS Snow Modeling Cold Regions Workshop November 2004 Andrea Holz NCRFC.

INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS for a safer, better world Capability of passive microwave and SNODAS SWE estimates for hydrologic predictions in selected U.S. watersheds.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

RFC Climate Requirements 2 nd NOAA Climate NWS Dialogue Meeting January 4, 2006 Kevin Werner.

Preliminary Applications of the HL-RDHM within the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Ed Clark, Hydrologist Presented July 26 th, 2007 as part of the.

NOAA’s National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Weather Forecast Office State College Ted Rodgers Hydrometeorologist Cody Moser Hydrologist.

Hydrology of Inland Flooding  Stream Gauges  Hydrologic Forecast Process  Forecast Considerations  Forecast Hydrographs 3-1.

National Weather Service Des Moines, IA National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Iowa Spring Flood Outlook March 5, 2010 Jeff Zogg, Senior Hydrologist.

Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

Introduction to Urban Hydrology

National Weather Service Hydrologic Forecasting Course Agenda 14 October – 7 November 2003.

2 009 W ater S upply F orecasting William B. Reed Senior Hydrologist Colorado Basin RFC September 18, W ater S eminar “Dust in the Wind and.

Hydrologic Model Review

CE 374 K – Hydrology Second Quiz Review Daene C. McKinney.

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Missouri River Basin Cooperative Plains Snow Survey Kevin Grode, P.E. Reservoir Regulation Team Lead Missouri.

Regional Flood Awareness Workshop December 3, 2009 Jeff Graschel Service Coordination Hydrologist Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center.

Pearl River Coordination Meeting October 7, 2009 Dave Reed Hydrologist in Charge Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Greg Smith Senior Hydrologist National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center January 25, 2011 Navajo.

Overview of CBRFC Flood Operations Arizona WFOs – May 19, 2011 Kevin Werner, SCH.

National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Interactive Forecast Program (IFP) CBRFC Open House August 18, 2010.

WATER RESOURCES DEPARTMENT

EF5: A hydrologic model for prediction, reanalysis and capacity building Zachary Flamig Postdoctoral Scholar.

Overview of Models & Modeling Concepts

Long-Lead Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River Basin for

Monitoring for Flood and Water Supply Forecasting

Presentation transcript:

NOAA National Weather Service Missouri River Forecaster’s Meeting Kansas City, Missouri November 2010 Ross Wolford Senior Operations Hydrologist Missouri Basin River Forecast Center

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Today’s Presentation General description of our forecast process Our responsibilities (deterministically) How our model works How we can change what the model does How forecasts can differ from our model and other peoples estimates Some forecasting challenges in 2010

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions MBRFC Area of Responsibility 25 Major River Basins 1.Upper Missouri River 2.Big Horn River 3.Yellowstone River 4.Milk River 5.Upper Dakota Tributaries 6. Middle Dakota Tributaries 7. Lower Dakota Tributaries 8. North Platte River 9. South Platte River 10. James/Vermillion Rivers 11.Big/Little Sioux Rivers 12.Loup River 13.Elkhorn/Platte River 14.Upper Missouri Tributaries 15.Upper Republican River 16.Upper Smoky Hill River 17.Lower Republican River 18.Lower Smoky Hill River 19.Big Blue River 20.Kansas River 21.Marais Des Cygnes River 22.Osage River 23.Lower Missouri Tributaries 24.Grand/Chariton Rivers 25.Missouri Mainstem

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Major Basins are divided into about 1000 sub-basins

National Weather Service Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Observed Period Estimated Precipitation

National Weather Service Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Forecast Precipitation

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Hydrologic Model Runoff from each basin routed downstream:  Runoff applied to unitgraphs  Flow routed from basin to basin  Flow adjusted at each gage site based on current stage and rating  Forecasted flow converted to stage based on current rating

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Deterministic Forecasts

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions What can forecasters change to affect model output? Snowmelt rate, was precip rain or snow?, runoff, snowpack water equivalent, SCA, rainfall, soil water content of any “bucket”, use radar-mix or “gage only”, past or forecast precip, unit hydrograph shape and duration, most time series (e.g. routed water, forecast streamflow). Future changes to time series, runoff, and rain+melt mods do not function on “raw model” runs. *

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions WHEN THINGS GO WRONG

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Rulo, Nebraska, June 13, 2010

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Rulo, Nebraska, June 14, 2010

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Rulo, Nebraska, June 16, 2010

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 24-hour QPF June 13, 2010

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 24-hr Rainfall June 14, 2010

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Platte R., Louisville, NE +30 to 50K

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Little Nemaha, Auburn, NE +20K

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Tarkio River, Fairfax, Mo +20K

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Big Nemaha R., Falls City, NE +23K

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Kansas River, Desoto, KS +40K

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Missouri R, Herman, Mo +60K

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Ross Wolford NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Rulo Ratings

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions NWSRFS - St. Joseph, Mo

National Weather Service QPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS Raw Model Output

National Weather Service QPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS The QPF Input

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Chronology of Forecasting Events 6:30-8:30 Review and manually adjust hourly Multisensor Precip Estimates ending at 12z. Automatic estimates every hour at about :20. Transfer to ldm for Corps every hour at :32. 6:30-7:00 Review and adjust QPF. Copy to ldm for Corps whenever QPF is run. 6:45 Automatic run of all rivers. Missouri River flows provided to NCRFC 7:00-9:30 Missouri River and tributaries models updated adjusting model states and inputs as needed. Missouri River flows updated and provided to NCRFC whenever model rerun. Call Corps as necessary to get gate changes.

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Chronology of Forecasting Events Continued 8:20 Retrieve Corps RCC reservoir report 8:30-9:30 Releases for Bagnell Reservoir on Osage River provided by Ameren Power, typically well after 9:00 9:00-10:00 Issue Kansas and Missouri River daily forecasts. Products provided Corps every 10 minutes 9:10 Provide daily precipitation report to Corps via 9:30, 10:00 Provide Missouri River tributary flows to Corps

National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Chronology of Forecasting Events Continued 10:16 Begin retrieving Kansas City Corps bulletin and reservoir release forecasts 10:35 Retrieve Omaha District bulletin 10:20 Provide QPF ensemble scenario forecasts to NCRFC, WFOs and Corps 11:00 Retrieve Missouri River forecasts from Corps RCC