Furthering the use of administrative data in sub-annual financial statistics International Association for Official Statistics Conference Da Nang, Viet Nam, October 2014

Introduction Format of todays presentation Setting the scene Introduction to GST in New Zealand Approach to maximising GST administrative data use Trial outputs Key lessons and future directions 2

Background Statistics 2020 vision: “to transform the collection and production of statistics”. Administrative data will be the first source of information, supplemented where necessary by direct collection. First stage in our economics area is to progress this vision for sub-annual financial collections. 3

Quick introduction to GST GST is a value added tax ie -paid on difference between sales and purchases Paid on most goods and services traded in New Zealand Very few exceptions, and confined to particular industries Key exceptions are financial services, residential rent, and donations

Current sub-annual indicators (1) 5 Economic Survey of Manufacturing– March 2014

Current sub-annual indicators (2) Wholesale Trade Survey – March 20146

Historic use of GST in sub-annual business collections 7

Managed collection strategy 8 Where does this line fit and how can the managed collection be maintained over time? Managed Collection Admin Data (GST) Key units Variables Proposed

Maximising administrative data use 9

Data assessment User needs and fitness for use GST reporting structures Conceptual alignment Reporting frequency Timeliness 10

Methodology options Can we use the GST data directly within our output? Direct unmodified approach Direct transformed approach Can the GST data be used in conjunction with other data? Combined sources approach Is GST unfit for statistical use? Collect data from other sources (such as a postal collection run by Statistics NZ is required) 11

Trial outputs (1) 12

Trial outputs (2) 13

Trial outputs (3) 14

Trial outputs (4) Quarterly Manufacturing Survey – Total Manufacturing sales compared to our new methods 15

16 Managed Collection Key units Variables Proposed What can we do if the variable of interest is not available in admin datasets? Admin Data Develop methods and strategies for producing stocks measures

Summary and key lessons We are now building these methods into producing our latest outputs internally. To be integrated into our future sub-annual designs starting mid next year. Strength of our organisations relationship with Inland Revenue is critical to ongoing success. The path to using more administrative data is full of challenges (and not just data challenges). 17

Questions Contact details Nicholas Cox, Mathew Page, Statistics New Zealand, Christchurch 18