Jobs and Minnesota’s Future Tom Stinson, State Economist January, 2011

Minnesota Has Been Very Successful (Especially For a Cold Weather State at the End of the Road) Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average Our population growth rate leads the frost belt We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators

Nominal GDP Per Capita Has Grown Faster than the U.S. Average

Minnesota’s Real Per Capita Personal Income Exceeded the US Average by 6 Percent in 2009

Employment in Minnesota Has Grown Faster Than the U.S. Average

Minnesota’s Share of U.S. Manufacturing Jobs Has Increased

Manufacturing Employment in Minnesota Continues to Outpace the U.S. Average

Minnesota’s Current Success Is Due to Decisions Made 50+ Years Ago Private sector and public sector decisions established the foundation for growth in Minnesota’s economy Dealing with challenges brought by the baby boom was a key to our success Wise investments were made Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success

Midway Through This Decade Minnesota’s Economy Was Struggling Per capita personal income growth ( ) – 3.5 percent – Rank 47th Real per capita gross state product growth – 1.4 percent – Rank 45 th Payroll employment – 1.2 percent – U.S., 1.6 percent Unemployment Rate at U.S. average

Minnesota Underperformed the U.S. Economy

Minnesota Outperformed the US Economy

Minnesota’ s Unemployment Rate Is Again Well Below the US Average

Minnesota Payroll Employment Is Recovering from its 2006 Struggle

Minnesota Employment Is Recovering Faster than the U.S. Average

Minnesota Has Lost Nearly 50,000 Construction Jobs Since 2005

What about the future?

The U.S. Economy Lost 8.4 Million Jobs in the Great Recession

We Are Headed to a New Normal The Great Recession Is over, but we will not return to where we were We are moving to a New Normal Minnesota is not alone—this a global phenomenon Those who recognize this and adapt first will be most successful The next four years will be critical to Minnesota’s future

Workforce Development Will Be Crucial to Minnesota’s Economic Future Number of workers Quality of workers – New entrants – Incumbent workforce

From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota Will See Large Increases Age 50s and 60s Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center, rev 2007 Numbers are rounded

Minnesota Saw a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 in ACS

Competition for the Future Workforce Will Increase Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer Mn Proj

Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply Updated to 2009 ACS

For Many Occupations, Replacements Will Outnumber New Job Growth Projected Openings In Minnesota Occupations DEED projections. Percent of 2009 level

The New 3 R’s for Economic Success Retention Recruitment Retraining

Education Is The Key To Productivity Minnesota High School Graduation Ratio Mn Dept of Education 5 year graduation rate. Percent of 9 th graders who graduate within 5 years