The Great Recession and Poverty January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 1 Suzanne Porter Oregon Department Of Human Services Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis FAX:

Newly Poor in the Great Recession  First detailed look at the work characteristics of SNAP households – working age and not disabled  Compared two SNAP intake cohorts: CY 2005 and FY 2009  Expansionary vs. recessionary period  Household structure, demographics, and work history of head of householder January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 2

Comparing the 2009 with 2005 cohort:  The total number of households increased by 58%  The number of new households in 2009 was nearly as large as the total number of households in 2005 January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 3

Multi-adult households nearly doubled Higher rates of growth among older households January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 4

Full-time worker households nearly doubled Households experiencing a drop in earned income more than doubled Average percentage drop in earnings ≈ 1/3 January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 5 Work history analyzed for the year prior to SNAP receipt Drop in earned income measured in quarter immediately preceding start of SNAP

January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 6

Men disproportionately affected  Number of adult males in SNAP cohort increased by 73%  46% of 2005 cohort to 49% of 2009 cohort  Increase partially due to disruption in construction and manufacturing sectors  Men comprised 69% of SNAP recipients with manufacturing job history, 93% of those with construction job history January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 7

Poor in Great Recession January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 8 Two years later, how has the recession changed the composition of the SNAP caseload? Compared two snapshot populations: June 2006 and June 2011

Caseload change – working age adults January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 9

January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 10 Demographic measures

January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 11 Household composition

January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 12 Work history

January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 13 Single-person households

January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 14 Single-person households, 18 to 24

Young adults January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis to 24 year olds were part of a baby- boomlet that occurred between 1987 and 1993 This cohort is coming of age during a period of high unemployment Potential long-term consequences

Poor in Great Recession January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 16 Early in the recession, the story was job loss That story has changed to joblessness Males & young adults have been particularly affected