CH2018: Multi-member ensemble simulations to explore decadal variability Stefan Broennimann 1,2, Marco Rohrer 1,2, Christoph C. Raible 2,3 1 Institute.

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CH2018: Multi-member ensemble simulations to explore decadal variability Stefan Broennimann 1,2, Marco Rohrer 1,2, Christoph C. Raible 2,3 1 Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland 2 Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland 3 Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland

Overview Available Simulations Drought years during Decadal variability of European heatwaves Decadal changes of atmospheric blocking Adds 2

Simulations Model: ECHAM5.4 Resolution: T63/L31 up to 10hPa 3

Simulations Model: ECHAM5.4 Resolution: T63/L31 up to 10hPa Forcing: SST reconstruction (Mann et al. 2008) Solar irradiance (Lean 2000) Volcanic eruptions (Crowley et al. 2008) GHG (as used in Yoshimori et al. 2010) Land use (Pongratz et al. 2008), bug!!! Aerosols (Koch et al. 1999) before 1850 constant 4

Simulations Model: ECHAM5.4 Resolution: T63/L31 up to 10hPa Forcing: SST reconstruction (Mann et al. 2008) Solar irradiance (Lean 2000) Volcanic eruptions (Crowley et al. 2008) GHG (as used in Yoshimori et al. 2010) Land use (Pongratz et al. 2008), bug!!! Aerosols (Koch et al. 1999) before 1850 constant Ensemble approach Different initial conditions obtained from a 1600 AD control simulation 30 ensemble members, 28 normally used 5

Evaluation 6 Known shortcomings: Land surface: only 9 from 14 types are implemented SST variability too low due to reconstruction method Sea ice constant before 1870

Evaluation 7

Drought years during Broennimann (2015, in press) ObservationEsemble mean ObservationEsemble mean

Decadal variability of European heatwaves 9 Broennimann (2015, in press) Reconstructed AMO and simulated area fraction for US and Europe when max. temperature excceeds the 90th percentile ( ) Ensemble meanEnsemble ranges«best» member AMO (C)

Decadal changes of atmospheric blocking 10 Winter Blocking Frequency in North Atlantic/Europe (-70 to10E, 40 to 80N; Member 025) Rohrer et al. (xxx)

Decadal changes of atmospheric blocking 11 Winter Blocking Frequency: Ensemble mean Rohrer et al. (xxx)

Adds Land use bug: additional simulations are available to assess the impact (relevance for extremes such as heat waves) CC400: Cyclone analysis CESM1: AD cyclone variability 12 Blumer et al (2015, in prep.)