NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano 503 414 3010 Natural Resources Conservation Service.

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Presentation transcript:

NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano Natural Resources Conservation Service

Graphical Products New Forecast Software VIPER Daily Forecasts

NRCS Webpage Circa 2001 until Sept 2006(!)

Design principles Rich context in neutral colors Data emphasized without being ham-fisted Still usable in black and white Completely annotated NRCS Webpage 2007

Combined NRCS/NWS plots (using ACIS data)

Where to get maps: To get actual data files

New forecasting software: VIPER (Visually Interactive Prediction and Estimation Routines) Based in Microsoft Excel so anyone can use Acquires data directly from agencies via the Internet Visually immersive, fully interactive

New forecasting software: VIPER (Visually Interactive Prediction and Estimation Routines) Based in Microsoft Excel so anyone can use Acquires data directly from agencies via the Internet Visually immersive, fully interactive Useful for everything from noodling around to full operational production. Possible classroom teaching tool? NRCS Sponsored training sessions

VIPER Regression techniques Principal Components Regression (Garen 1992) Prevents compensating variables. Filters “noise”. Originally coupled to predictor search routine (“optimization”) but not necessary.

Principal Components Regression (Garen 1992) Prevents compensating variables. Filters “noise”. Originally coupled to predictor search routine (“optimization”) but not necessary. Z-Score Regression (Pagano 2004) Prevents compensating variables. Aggregates like predictors, emphasizing best ones. Does not require serial completeness. Relative contribution of predictors VIPER Regression techniques

Other VIPER features Predictor search routines Predictor time optimization Report generation Exporting to GIS Saving and managing static forecast equations Automated data acquisition from web Data management and editing Forecast coordination and management Forecast routing Configuration management

Daily Forecast Updates Currently, forecasts produced 1x per month using monthly data. With a simulation model (e.g. ESP) can be run more frequently but is resource intensive.

Daily Forecast Updates Daily SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years. Statistical forecast techniques are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365 forecast equations/year?

Daily Forecast Updates Daily SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years. Statistical forecast techniques are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365 forecast equations/year? Developed Excel application to calibrate daily forecasts (1.5 mins) and run them on a scheduler (10 sec)

avg Period of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile)

avg Period of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile) Official coordinated outlooks

avg Period of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile) Official coordinated outlooks Daily Update Forecasts

Official forecasts

Daily forecast 50% exceedence Official forecasts Expected skill

Calibration dataset of today’s equation Current forecast

Sept 30

May 1

obs

Courtesy Randal Wortman Army Corps 6% avg error

wsf/daily_forecasts.html If you want more forecasts in your area: Oregon/Columbia: (503) Washington: (360) Idaho: (208) Montana: (406)