0 1. Identify the SIZE and TIMING of all relevant cash flows on a time line. 2.Identify the RISKINESS of the cash flows to determine the appropriate discount rate. 3.Find NPV by discounting the cash flows at the appropriate discount rate. 4.Compare the value of competing cash flow streams at the same point in time. Review of Domestic Capital Budgeting

1 Measuring Cash Flows The guiding principle is to measure incremental cash flows. That is, how much the project really adds to the cash flow of the parent But this is often easier said than done. They are often real problems in measuring incremental cash flows such as Cross Relationship Between Parent and Subsidiary –Cannibalization –Cross Fertilization Accounting for cash flows –Transfer pricing (especially when market prices aren’t available) –Fees royalties and other charges for overhead Intangibles –Good will –Experience

2 Review of Domestic Capital Budgeting The basic net present value equation is Where: CF t = expected incremental after-tax cash flow in year t, TV T = expected after tax cash flow in year T, including return of net working capital, C 0 = initial investment at inception, K = weighted average cost of capital. T = economic life of the project in years.

3 Review of Domestic Capital Budgeting The NPV rule is to accept a project if NPV  0 and to reject a project if NPV  0

4 Review of Domestic Capital Budgeting For our purposes it is necessary to expand the NPV equation. R t is incremental revenue C t is incremental operating cash flow D t is incremental depreciation I t is incremental interest expense  is the marginal tax rate

5 Review of Domestic Capital Budgeting For our purposes it is necessary to expand the NPV equation.

6 Review of Domestic Capital Budgeting We can use to restate the NPV equation as:

7 The Adjusted Present Value Model Can be converted to adjusted present value (APV) By appealing to Modigliani and Miller’s results.

8 The Adjusted Present Value Model The APV model is a value additivity approach to capital budgeting. Each cash flow that is a source of value to the firm is considered individually. Note that with the APV model, each cash flow is discounted at a rate that is appropriate to the riskiness of the cash flow.

9 Capital Budgeting from the Parent Firm’s Perspective Donald Lessard developed an APV model for a MNC analyzing a foreign capital expenditure. The model recognizes many of the particulars peculiar to foreign direct investment.

10 Capital Budgeting from the Parent Firm’s Perspective The operating cash flows must be translated back into the parent firm’s currency at the spot rate expected to prevail in each period. The operating cash flows must be discounted at the unlevered domestic rate

11 Capital Budgeting from the Parent Firm’s Perspective OCF t represents only the portion of operating cash flows available for remittance that can be legally remitted to the parent firm. The marginal corporate tax rate, , is the larger of the parent’s or foreign subsidiary’s.

12 Capital Budgeting from the Parent Firm’s Perspective S 0 RF 0 represents the value of accumulated restricted funds (in the amount of RF 0 ) that are freed up by the project. Denotes the present value (in the parent’s currency) of any concessionary loans, CL 0, and loan payments, LP t, discounted at i d.

13 Which Currency? Time PeriodFree Cash Flow 0-£ £ £8.90 3£9.70 4£9.90 5£10.40 Terminal Value (Period 5)£78.00

14 Assume Subsidiary WACC=15% Time PeriodFree Cash Flow pv (15%) 0-£ £10.40 £9.04 2£8.90 £6.73 3£9.70 £6.38 4£9.80 £5.60 5£10.40 £5.17 5£78.00 £38.78 Pound NPV£15.70 $ NPV (S=1.7)$26.70

15 Suppose R($)=6% R(pound)=10% Then Irp means S 1 =S 0 (1.06)/1.10 Time PeriodFree Cash Flow SFCF ($) 0-£ $ £ $ £ $ £ $ £ $ £ $ £ $110.18

16 Estimating the Future Expected Exchange Rates We can appeal to PPP:

17 Suppose (1+WACC($))/(1+WACC(U.K))=(1+r($))/(1+r(U.K)) WACC($)=(1.15)*(1.06)/(1.1)=10.8% Time Period Free Cash Flow SFCF ($)PV 0-£ $ £ $17.04$ £ $14.05$ £ $14.76$ £ $14.37$9.53 5£ $14.69$8.79 5£ $110.18$65.93 NPV$26.70

18 Moral If the assumptions are met, it doesn’t seen to matter what currency is used to evaluate the project But –What if IRP doesn’t hold –What if the Wacc’s are inconsistent with the risk free rates

19 A recipe for international decision makers: 1. Estimate future cash flows in foreign currency. 2. Convert to U.S. dollars at the predicted exchange rate. 3. Calculate APV using the U.S. cost of capital. International Capital Budgeting Example – year 2 years 3 years

20 Facts International Capital Budgeting Is this a good investment from the perspective of the U.S. shareholders? – year 2 years 3 years  = 3% S 0 ($/ ) = $.55265

21 E[S t ($/ )] can be found by appealing to the interest rate differential: E[S 1 ($/ )] = [(1.06/1.03)  S 0 ($/ )] CF 0 = ( 600) S 0 ($/ ) =( 600)($.5526/ ) = $331.6 = [(1.06/1.03)  ($.5526/ ) ] = $.5687/ so CF 1 = ( 200)($.5687/ ) = $113.7 CF 2 = [(1.06) 2 /(1.03) 2 ] S 0 ($/ )  ( 500) = $292.6 APV = -$ $113.7/(1.15) + $292.6/(1.15) 2 + $180.7/(1.15) 3 = $107.3 > 0 so accept. CF 1 = ( 200)E[S t ($/ )] Similarly, Solution CF 3 = [(1.06) 3 /(1.03) 3 ] S 0 ($/ )  ( 300) = $180.7

22 Risk Adjustment in the Capital Budgeting Process Clearly risk and return are correlated. Political risk may exist along side of business risk, necessitating an adjustment in the discount rate.

23 Sensitivity Analysis In the APV model, each cash flow has a probability distribution associated with it. Hence, the realized value may be different from what was expected. In sensitivity analysis, different estimates are used for expected inflation rates, cost and pricing estimates, and other inputs for the APV to give the manager a more complete picture of the planned capital investment.

24 Real Options The application of options pricing theory to the evaluation of investment options in real projects is known as real options. –A timing option is an option on when to make the investment. –A growth option is an option to increase the scale of the investment. –A suspension option is an option to temporarily cease production. –An abandonment option is an option to quit the investment early.