Fundraising and the Media April 23, 2013

Opportunities to discuss course content Tuesday 11-2 Weds 10-2

Learning Objectives Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Readings Chapter 7: Political Communication and the Mass Media (Flanigan)

OUTSIDE SPENDING IN 2012

Top Outside Spenders: 2012

Outside Spending in 2012

Advantages of Super Pacs They Can Spend the Unlimited Amounts Level the Playing Field Say things that a candidate would never say

Disadvantages of Super Pacs Message problems Cost-effectiveness

Impact of the Super-pacs GOP outspends 2-1, but Hard Money is still better Tend to give to ideologically pure and long- shot candidates Will have to re-evaluate themselves

THE ELECTION The Republicans

Romney Perry Gingrich Santorum

Obama’s Super Pac Strategy Previously If You cant beat them, join them Creates a super pac

Obama in the Summer Preemptive Attack Battleground States Cost-Effective

Overall Spending

THE MEDIA

The Role of the Media Is an informal institution Is a linkage institution It is profit driven

The Media and Opinion Formation We are exposed to it constantly, but does it matter? Direct Effects model says it matters a lot

Indirect Effects Model Two-Step flow Model The Role of Elites

THE MINIMAL EFFECTS MODEL Does the media really matter

The Minimal Effects Model The Fall Campaign is not that important Most people have made up their mind

Spurious/Minimal effects model We do not seek out political information We have selective/exposure perception We rarely make major changes

Who is influenced the most Those with the least political attention Those without stable party identification Elections can swing if it is close

WHERE WE GET OUR POLITICAL INFORMATION

Where we get Political Information

The Type of Media Matters Television is the most important The internet is the fastest, but has the most bias

We Would Rather Watch Mistakes on TV Bad SushiSushi People Falling People A great collectioncollection

Newspapers and Magazines Newspapers – Provide more information and Detail – Very few cities have multiple papers anymore Magazines- vary in content and quality

The Decline of Old media

THE MEDIA AND CAMPAIGNS

Why a campaign? Minimal effects model says most people don’t switch Go after weak partisans and independents Make sure your base comes out

When are Campaigns Most important When we know nothing about the candidates There is no counter-information When the information is important

Why you try to get

Horse Race Coverage What is it? What does it contain Why?

Following The Polls

The keys to horse race coverage Polling Perception No issues

Horse Race Dominated the Primaries

HORSE RACE COVERAGE IN THE PRIMARY ELECTION

Component I: Categorizer Sorts the candidates into winners and losers Creates an Image for the candidate

Component II: Expectation Setter Puts odds on the candidates You want to be at the top… duh But it isn't as good as you might thinkthink

Component III: Mentioner You want the media to notice you Not all press is good press Mentions mean money and votes

Component IV:Winnowing The Press Winnows (narrows) down the candidates Attention is on Iowa and NH Frontloading is the results

Winnowing In 2012

DEBATES

Presidential Debates A Recent Phenomenon General Strategies Do not screw upscrew

Why Candidates Like these A chance for exposure A chance for Legitimacy A chance to move in the polls

Presidential Debates Who Wins (the leader in the polls) The Person who doesn’t make a mistake Does it matter?

Presidential Debates Win by not losing What don't you want to do? – The 1960 DebateDebate – Look ancientancient – Seem heartlessheartless – You are no Jack KennedyJack Kennedy – Eastern Europe is Free Eastern Europe is Free – The Global TestGlobal Test – Adm. James Stockdale Blind, Deaf, Dumb BlindDeafDumb

Impact of the First Debate on Coverage

THE GENERAL ELECTION

2012 vs 2008

Less Horse Race than 2008

Obligatory Chad Long Dig

Negative Coverage Dominates

Horse Race Coverage Favors Frontrunners

You have No Friends on Social Media

The Media Missed Palin

THE MEDIA STRATEGY

The Media Strategy Getting the Message Out – Paid Advertisements – Free Press You campaign for votes and you campaign for media by getting free coverage Avoid cannibalizing

Getting Free Press Having your message get covered by the media You can reach a wide audience and It is not costing you money This is fully mediated

Maximizing Free Coverage Create a package Convey a winning message Shape an Image

Maximizing Free Coverage Don’t Say too Much Repeat the Few Basic Points Bad Press is Bad Press

Ask Herman Cain about Bad news