AoH Phase 2 and TSS Project Update WRAP Technical Analysis Forum Las Vegas, NV February 6, 2007

Overview This morning: –Brief overview of project –Brief review of TSS Home page and recent tools –Review of data substitution analysis for WRAP sites This afternoon: –Review of TSS training schedule –Review of on-going AoH Phase 2 and TSS work –Anticipated data updates for 2007

TSS Goals Provide a single web-based location for: –Access and display of technical data –Display of analytical results –The reference location for related documentation to support the regional haze implementation plans Provide technical support documentation for WRAP regional haze implementation plans

WRAP Technical Information Centers Visibility Information Exchange Web System (VIEWS): VIEWS provides on-line access to monitoring data, research results and special studies related to visibility. Regional Modeling Center: The WRAP’s Regional Modeling Center at the University of California Riverside provides state and tribal agencies with sophisticated modeling of regional haze in the Western United States. Emissions Data Management System: An emission inventory data warehouse for states and tribes. The system provides a consistent, complete and regional approach to emissions data management and tracking. Causes of Haze Assessment: A detailed analysis of ambient monitoring data for regional haze in the WRAP region. The Technical Support System integrates a number of different information resources under one web-based umbrella.

WRAP Data Centers Support the TSS Data Centers Planning/Decision Tool & Summary Data Haze monitoring data Modeling analysis results Emissions data Monitoring analysis results

TSS Overview TSS focus has been to prepare tools to support SIP writers’ needs –Dynamic tools – interactive, based on data queries Graphs Tables Maps –Static tools – analyses/products generated outside of the TSS, often placeholders for planned dynamic tools Most SIP-relevant tools are currently in place Where possible, data tables have been made available for download so analysts can examine data and reformat graphics as required

TSS Demo

WRAP Data Substitution Project The Regional Haze Rule (RHR) data completeness requirements: Each sample must contain all required species Each season must contain at least 50% possible days Each year must contain at least 75% possible days No more than 10 consecutive samples may be missing Three (3) years of “complete” data required for baseline Allowable “routine” data substitutions already performed: Use of a surrogate in the data set (e.g., sulfate and sea salt) Use of seasonal average to “patch” data according to specific RHR guidelines Additional data substitutions beyond RHR guidance: Estimation of OC from organic H; estimation of EC from OC Identify a “donor” site and apply historical regression for data substitution

Sites w/Data Completeness Problems

Working with States ARS worked with each state individually to review options and refine methods Important elements of final method include: –Regional consistency –Use of same site surrogate (OC from H, EC from OC) first –Use of donor site as necessary, only for missing species (in some cases only soil and/or coarse mass were substituted because all other species had been captured in the sample) –Use of Kendall-Theil regression (better at handling outliers than standard linear regression) –Use of donor site determined by review of historical comparisons and state knowledge about the sites Final decision on data substitutions expected by states very soon, pending final data from ARS; will be posted at:

Start with IMPROVE RHR dataset (daily_budgets_nia_ ) 3 complete years (including 2002)? Calculate site specific, quarterly component linear regression stats for each missing component (IMPROVE Raw data) Is Hydrogen available (A module)? Missing OC/EC (C module)? For each missing year, check each incomplete day Done Complete years? Calculate site specific, quarterly Organic H/OC and OC/EC linear regressions stats (IMPROVE Raw data) Select nearby IMPROVE site with similar characteristics Apply quarterly regressions to substitute site mass values for missing components only yes Apply quarterly regressions to Organic H and resultant OC values for OC/EC values no yes no Data Substitution Flow Chart

Tonto NM has 3 years of complete RHR data (2001, 2003, 2004) but requires 2002 for model predictions Blue bars represent sum of extinction from all species Red lines represent minimum 20% worst values Sample Results: TONT1

Tonto NM with substitutions from Sierra Ancha W –2000 still not complete year –2002 complete year; Apr-May carbon substitutions from org. H

Tonto NM with substitutions from Sierra Ancha W –2000 still not complete year –2002 complete year; Apr-May carbon substitutions from org. H

Capitol Reef NP has 2 years of complete RHR data (2003, 2004) and requires 2002 for model predictions Blue bars represent sum of extinction from all species Red lines represent minimum 20% worst values Sample Results: CAPI1

Capitol Reef NP with substitutions from Canyonlands NP –No carbon substitutions from org. H –All three years require extensive substitutions from CANY1

Capitol Reef NP with substitutions from Canyonlands NP –No carbon substitutions from org. H –All three years require extensive substitutions from CANY1

Afternoon Session

IWG training #1, February 15 –60-90 minutes of WebEx training –Narrow focus TSS Training Schedule Thru mid-2007 Orientation to site selection map Orientation to “tab” tool options Orientation to a small number of tools + documentation –Syllabus to be delivered prior to training

IWG training #2, March/April –Similar format –Topic: how to use the TSS to perform a Reasonable Progress/Weight of Evidence analysis [Tom to say a few words about Reasonable Progress] TSS Orientation & Review Meeting, June –In person training to broad audience (Tom to discuss in greater detail tomorrow) TSS Training Schedule (cont.)

Visibility projections tool currently under development –Calculation of RRFs via multiple methods as described in the Monitoring Metrics document New tool development to stop, will spend time on TSS “clean up” –Site completeness and consistency –Better labeling, formatting –Re-design of WOE page: more intuitive/less confusing Completion of the AoH Phase 2 document – user guide to the TSS TSS Technical Work Thru mid-2007

Evaluation/re-design of database structure to make selections more intuitive to both the user and the developers One example of many similar issues: –IMPROVE Aerosol (Raw) –IMPROVE Aerosol (Preliminary) –IMPROVE Aerosol (RHR1) –IMPROVE Aerosol (RHR2) –IMPROVE Aerosol (Substituted) Does anyone know what the differences are??? TSS Technical Work (cont.)

IMPROVE data updates for 2005 and 2006 (?) Emissions and modeling updates for the Preliminary Reasonable Progress run (2018) [Tom to say a few words…] TSS linkage with other data nodes: –Emissions Data Management System (EDMS); review of entire system currently underway, including potential methods for linkage to TSS –Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS); system currently in design phase –Addition of ozone data to TSS; data available, need database structure and review tools TSS Data Updates Expected in 2007