Example of forward-looking integrated assessement Anita Pirc Velkavrh EIONET workshop: SEIS Forward and SOER 2010 Part C September 2009, Prague, Czech Republic

Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: towards sustainable consumption and production (EEA draft report September 2009)

Influence of the driving forces on future patterns of production in the Western Balkans

Population Key Messages In coming decades, most of the countries in the region are projected to see declining and ageing populations; demographic growth is expected to continue only in Albania and Kosovo Migration patterns are less certain. The region must still resolve the legacy of migrants who in the 1990s left to escape conflict and economic problems, and these flows could change the region’s demography. In coming decades, countries may see further departures to richer countries; migrants arriving from other continents and countries (including illegal migration); and domestically, further movements from rural to urban areas.

Population growth and decline, 1995 to 2005 and projections for 2005 to 2050

Ageing populations in the Western Balkans

An overview of the effects of key driving forces on key areas of production and consumption Feedback mechanisms and other interactions between the driving forces and production patterns should be investigated further

Energy consumption Key message Residential energy consumption is major source of ineffective use of energy and impact to environment and people health: inefficient electric heaters, air conditioning, fuel wood and coal are also widely used for heating which contribute to both indoor and local air pollution. Unregulated cutting of fuel-wood can contribute to deforestation and biodiversity loss. In future decades, demographic changes are likely to influence household energy consumption as well as building construction: households are becoming smaller and floor space per capita is growing.

Forecast of final Energy Consumption in Croatia per sector,

driving forces will influence future household energy consumption patterns Population: with smaller households, future energy consumption per person and per square metre of dwelling area is likely to increase in coming decades. Culture and values may play an important role in determining whether people in the region prefer to refurbish and improve existing houses and building or seek to live in newly built suburbs. Markets and business can play an important role. For example, construction companies can develop techniques to build new homes that are well insulated, as well as techniques to insulate existing housing. Policy choices will also play a key role. These will include standards for energy efficiency in new buildings, initiatives to make existing buildings more efficient, as well as the use of standards (such as EU labels) for the energy efficiency of appliances. Land use policies can play an important role in terms of the patterns of new construction. National and local energy policies can support district heating plants and other systems that improve the efficiency of heating.