Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 The International H 2 O Project (IHOP_2002) -- Two years Later Expected Outcomes, Pleasant Surprises and Future Challenges David Parsons and Tammy Weckwerth NCAR/ATD Boulder, CO USA

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Motivation

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Motivation Floods, especially flash floods, cause more deaths each year than tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning and wind storms Significant property losses due to flash floods and they are the highest percentage of federal aid events. (Recently >$8 billion per year and rising). Warnings are difficult: often night time events, public perception of precipitation events, dependent on hydrology and meteorology, and increases in skill will help (current warnings often < 1h). The problem of poor forecasts of flash floods and warm season convective is a problem that is international in scope. It has been argued that improvements in QPF for non-flood situations will have significant economic and social benefit. IHOP_2002 research will benefit other warm season warning and prediction problems

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Goals of IHOP_2002 Improved understanding and prediction of warm season rainfall (0 –12 h forecast) Improved characterization of the time varying 3-D distribution of water vapor Four overlapping research components –Convective initiation –Quantitative precipitation forecasting –Atmospheric Boundary Layer –Instrumentation (optimal mix)

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Isentropic Airflow and Sounding Domain Isentropic streamlines (37 C) for 2330 UTC 4 May The dashed lines are isobars at 100 hPa intervals (from Carlson and Ludlam 1968)

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 IHOP Summary: 13 May to 25 June >200 Technical participants from France, the US, Germany and Canada ~2500 additional soundings > 50 instrument platforms, 6 aircraft, 45 IOPs 268 h of airborne water vapor lidar measurements 76 h of airborne satellite evaluation measurements (S-HIS and NAST) Dedicated GOES-11 data

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Convective Initiation – Expected Outcomes

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies Expected Outcomes

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 QPF – Expected Outcomes IHOP Research Forecast Models (courtesy of Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL)

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Instrumentation (Optimal Mix) Expected Outcomes

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Instrumentation (Optimal Mix) Expected Outcomes

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Some Pleasant Surprises BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Some Pleasant Surprises BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 One Example of Several Pleasant Instrumentation Surprises --- Refractivity

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Some Pleasant Surprises Use of Data Set for Diverse and Unexpected Applications U wind for LLJ anomaly from the diurnal mean Obs Climate Model

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 CAM3 Diurnal Composite (SGP, IHOP period)

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Some Successes Over the Past Year Rapid movement toward collaborative work, sometimes stretching well beyond the expected boundaries Rapid movement toward a mix of case studies and climatologies Healthy mix of observations and modeling work

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success? Publications are one measure of success –Some refereed publications are starting to appear –Strong showing in conference literature –Special issue in Monthly Weather Review

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success? Impact on operational forecasting will be another measure utilized –Prediction #1 – Radar refractivity will become operational in large part due to IHOP_2002 –Operational interest and eventual operational impact of reference radiosonde results –Prediction #2 – Strong (possibly under appreciated) impact on operations through new conceptual model and increased knowledge of how to model convection

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Impact on operational forecasting will be another measure utilized Potential to contribute to big picture questions facing NWP –Increase and improve utilization of satellite data sets over land –Improved treatment of land surface processes –Improved assimilation of water (cloud, vapor and precipitation) Propose a meeting Thursday at lunch to discuss the long awaited assimilation workshop

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Impact on operational forecasting will be another measure utilized Tammy Weckwerth if you have ideas on other contributions of IHOP_2002 to prediction of warm season convection Appreciate thoughts from PIs on how IHOP_2002 will address the other two big picture issues and how transfers to operations will occur

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Prospective on Future Experiments IHOP_2002 –Regional-scale meridional gradient in mixing ratio, soil moisture and vegetation –High CAPE but strong CIN (the original conditionally unstable environment) –“Relatively” low impact of transient synoptic disturbances –Strong terrain impact to the west of the experimental domain –Large systems are nocturnal

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Prospective on Future Experiments CSIP –Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation –Lower CAPE but less CIN –Stronger impact of transient synoptic disturbances –Modest terrain impacts within the experimental domain –Lack of “continental” propagation of large convective systems

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Prospective on Future Experiments German QPF experiment –Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation –Lower CAPE but less CIN –Large terrain impacts within the experimental domain so that terrain may control convective systems –Strong impact of transient synoptic disturbances

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 THORPEX The THORPEX slides on the European flood are courtesy of Melvyn Shapiro, Co-chair, THORPEX International Science Steering Committee

1 st Example: Central European Floods August 2002 Prague

Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug France Italy The Storm

Dresden Germany

Central European Floods Cyclogenesis off Japan Courtesy of Shapiro and Thorpe

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1 2

7 6 5

Flood

2 nd Example: Minnesota Flood: June 2002 Moderate drought on 1 June Widespread rainfall in excess of 5 inches. Flood with >$340 million in federal disaster aid. 80% of homes and businesses damaged in Roseau, MN Locally most significant flood on record.

Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002

Convection along Mei-Yu Front Wisc. flood, previous wave packet ?

1 st Downstream Cyclogenesis

2 nd Downstream cyclogenesis Mn flood from frontal overrunning

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004 Thank for your attention and for your hard work on IHOP_2002