Updating Household Projections for England Bob Garland

Why project households? Can’t just rely on population projections for long term planning for housing Need some systematic view of future housing requirements that is consistent from each local authority upwards to England A common starting point for local authority assessments 2

How are Household Projections Used? 3

National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) Local Authority Strategic Housing Market Assessments Scale and mix of housing needed over plan period Meets household projections Addresses the need for all types of housing for different groups 4 Main Use of the Projections in England

Planning Practice Guidance Household Projections the starting point estimates Adjustments may be needed due to: Suppression of household formation More recent demographic evidence Employment trends Market Signals (e.g. house prices, rents, affordability) 5

Household Projections - Magnitude Household Growth in England 2011 Interim projections 221,000 households per year up to based projection 245,000 household per year over the same period Housing Supply (Net additional dwellings) 2013/14136, /08 223,500 6

Updating Household Projections: Challenges Changing population projections - Implications for household projections What we learnt from the 2011 Census? What we learnt from the 2011-based household projections? What have we learnt about the methodology? 7

Changing Population Projections 8

ONS 2012 based population projections England population projected to grow from 53.5 million in 2012 to 62.2 million in 73.3 million in 2037 Lower rate of growth than 2010 –based (mainly lower migration assumption) Key aspects for household growth: Ageing Population: average age 39.7 years in in 2037 (UK) Number of people aged 80 to more than double to 6 million by mid

National Population Projections (ONS): Ageing Population 10

ONS 2012 Based Sub National Population Projections The ONS SNPP are the starting point for the household projections Population growth for each local authority in England Large variation across local authorities England Population to grow by 7% up to 2022 ¼ of LAs to increase by over 9.5% ¼ of LAS by less than 3.9% Variation in Age Structure 2012: 24 LAs with more than ¼ people aged 65 and over ! 11

12 Projected population growth rate by local authority, England, mid-2012 to mid-2022 ONS SNPP 2012-based

What we learnt for the Census

What we learnt from the 2011 Census More people and less households than projected Alan Holmans: ‘ New Estimates of Housing Demand and Need in England, 2011 to 2031’ Town and Country Planning Asociation, (2013) 14

Comparison of Census 2011 Estimate and Projections 15 Comparison Projections and Census EnglandThousands ProjectionCensus 2011Difference% Population % Households % One person households % Lone parent households % Couples, no other adults % Couples, one or more other adults % Other multiple persons % Alan Holmans, New Estimates of Housing Demand and Need in England, 2011 to 2031(TCPA, 2013)

Differences between Census England Differences between projections and Census Householdthousands One PersonCouples Other multi- person Households Representvie's age and over Total Alan Holmans, New Estimates of Housing Demand and Need in England, 2011 to 2031(TCPA, 2013)

17 (2) Households – 2011 Census – Household numbers & changes at national level There were 22.1 million households in England on census night compared to 20.5 million in 2001, an increase of 7.8 per cent.

18 Census – Household average sizes at national level The average household size was 2.4 people per household in 2011, unchanged from 2001 levels. The average household has decreased substantially in the last 100 years as the number of households increased faster than the household population – the average household had 4.3 residents in 1911!!

What has happened since the Census? Mortgage approvals to first time buyers are recovering – not yet reached previous peak English Housing Survey 2012/13 (Gross Household Formation) 386,000 new households, they were most likely to enter the private 64% into private rent 19% became owner occupiers, 17% into social rented Most new households aged under 35: 45% had an HRP aged under 25, and 41% were aged % one person 30 % couples with no dependent children l 19

What we learnt for the 2011-based household projections?i 20

Lower Household Growth in 2011 based interim projections thousands 2011-based projection2008-based projection Difference * Average annual change 2011 – 2021 Under – – – – – – All households Differences in percentage points need to be interpreted as indicative only because of the change in population base

Average household size – 2008 and 2011 interim projections

Changes in the Drivers of Household growth 2011 Projections: population change the main driver of the increase in households, accounting for 98 per cent of the total increase in households between 2011 and Projections : Population: 72% Household Formation: 16% 2011 Projections Components of Change

24 Some questions about the methodology I Too complicated? What’s the value of Stage 1 and Stage 2? Stage 1 tied to an ‘old’ definition of household rep. oldest male then the oldest female if there is no male? Done to provide consistent back to 1971? A method that ‘learns’ from recent trends

England Household Projection Methodology Stage 1 : Headline Household Numbers Household Representative Rates by Age, Gender and Marital Status Project based on trends from past Census data back to 1971 Apply HRR to population projection National down to Local Authority Stage 2: Detailed Household Groups Project on 2001 and 2011 Census Controlled to Stage 1 totals Headship Rates by Detailed Household Types One person /families (children)/ Family+ other adults 25

What is the future for household projections Much greater reliance on administrative data? End of the long term decrease in average household size? What about the elderly - assisted living? Should we take account of the housing market – at least for projections over the next 10 years? Could population and household projections be integrated? Now your questions and suggestions. Thank you. 26