1 Introduction What does it mean when there is a strong positive correlation between x and y ? Regression analysis aims to find a precise formula to relate.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Introduction What does it mean when there is a strong positive correlation between x and y ? Regression analysis aims to find a precise formula to relate the movements of y to those of x The use of regression requires a good deal of thought and a good dose of skepticism

2 Example: Sales vs. Advertising

3

4 It is believed that sales, S, are tied to advertising, A, by a simple linear equation: What do  0 and  1 represent? How can we find  0 and  1 ?

5 Sales vs. Advertising The linear relation is usually not exact. A more realistic model: Where  0 and  1 are regression coefficients.

6 Measurement Error Properties of distribution A mean of zero Symmetry around zero An assignment of greater probability to small errors than to larger ones Errors are assumed to be: Independent Have same variance (homoscedasticity)

7 Method of Least Squares Consider the simple formula: Where the measurement errors are independent samples from N(0, ) How to find the estimators of  0 and  1 ?

8 Choosing the best line y x I II III

9 Least Squares Estimates Suggest an index to measure discrepancy between points and line Focus on vertical disparities between points and line Sum of the square of the deviations:

10 Least Squares Estimates