Space Weather Modeling and Data Integration Space Weather Workshop May, 2008 Lawrence Zanetti Science and Analysis Branch

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/07 Simon Wing (Heliosphere/Magnetosphere) Co-Project Lead Manolis K. Georgoulis (Sun) Co-Project Lead Janice Schofield (Technical Services) Developer / Page Curator This effort could not be possible without the work of numerous APL scientists striving to deliver unique SpW science products The products we present have been developed in the framework of the multi-year University Partnership for Operational Support (UPOS) Program that prepared the ground for SpW science at APL

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/07 04/25

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/07 09/25 An example of successful flare prediction NOAA AR 10953, 05/02/07, 23:40 UT, C9 flare The solar activity at that time was predicted to remain at very low levels (NOAA/SWPC weekly archives)

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/07 11/25 Automatic recognition and characterization of H  filaments Applying pattern recognition to chromospheric H  images to determine the presence of filaments and assess their chirality (Bernasconi et al., 2005) Left-handed filament Right-handed filament Left-handed filament BBSO The code utilizes in real time the data from the Global High- Resolution H  network Nearly uninterrupted coverage of the solar disk. Knowledge of the chirality of the CME stemming from eruptive filaments

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/07 15/25 Kp-forecast timeseries

Input: IMF and solar wind proton density and speed Output: FAC location and intensity; and total currents for the northern hemisphere Total Currents Field Aligned Currents (FAC) NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/07 20/25

The Radiation Belt Storm Probes Mission is in Phase B Radiation Belt Storm Probes – twin spacecraft in highly elliptical orbits to understand the basic principals behind relativistic particle acceleration, transport, and loss. RBSP is being implemented as the 2nd mission in the Living With a Star Program.

Input: Near-real time ACE data including IMF, solar wind bulk speed and proton density Output : Predictions of daily averages of MeV electron fluxes at geostationary orbit up to 27 days in advance Green : Electron Flux < 1.0e+3 Yellow : 1.0e+3 <= Electron Flux < 5.0e+3 Red : Electron Flux >= 5.0e+3 Energy range : 0.7 to 1.8 MeV > 2 MeV Daily-averaged MeV electron intensity at geostationary orbit NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/07 17/25

ACE Early Warning for Space Weather (Advanced Composition Explorer)  ACE Real-Time Solar Wind (RTSW) data provide an early warning for space weather forecasting  RTSW users are from government, military, industry, and academia  Scientists use ACE data to model space weather disturbances, to significantly advance early warning capabilities, and to predict the geo-effectiveness of space weather events

Advanced Composition Explorer Space Weather Science Status 2008  Solar and solar wind disturbances  Disrupt military and civilian communications and space systems  Damage terrestrial infrastructure  Expose airline passengers and crew on polar routes to radiation; cause communication outages; cause GPS location errors and radar clutter  Drive approximately 25% of military and civilian environmental models  Radiation belts out to geosynchronous  Geomagnetic storm models, e.g. ionospheric density and structure, Kp  Auroral zone position and intensity  Predicting space weather is vital for astronaut health and safety  NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center received more than 4 million file transfers and 20,000 unique users per month in 2007  Input to Lunar and Martian radiation environment models

Advanced Composition Explorer Functional Status 2008  Real-time data stream (approx. 5% of science rate) functioning  4 instruments: magnetometer, solar wind, low and high energy particles  Energetic total ion detector substitution due to solar storms degradation of forward looking telescopes  Spacecraft systems functional although 8 years past design requirement and 5 years past design goal (launch August 1997)  Ceased circularizing Lagrangian L1 halo orbit to preserve fuel  Sufficient fuel until 2022  24 hour tracking arranged by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center; charter to deliver real-time space weather products and conditions, to provide predictions to registered users  45 minute to 1 hour warning of geomagnetic activity

backups

Boberg et al. [2000] Operational at Lund Obs. Operational at NOAA/AF APL model 1 APL model 3 [purely driven by solar wind] (1 hr ahead forecast) APL model 2 (4 hr ahead forecast) (1 hr ahead forecast) Summary NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/07 16/25

Solar Variability Can Affect Terrestrial Climate Given the massive economic impact of small changes in climate, we should fully understand both natural and anthropogenic causes of global change.

Real-Time ACE Data on the Web  NOAA tracks APL-built spacecraft and puts space weather data on the web Posted within 5 min USAF-NOAA Collaboration Tracking by US, UK, India, Japan

Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space Safeguard Our Outward Journey Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space Heliophysics Division Objectives Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems

4 Aug 1972 Exposure for unshielded flight crew on Lunar surface Solar Proton Events During the Apollo Program Oct 2003 Proton Flare(~ ACE) Estimated level of radiation exposure needed to produce 20% mortality in humans

Solar Probe History Early Solar Probe studies, reports: 1962, 1978