HIV/AIDS AND THE ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY OF TSHWANE Prof Carel van Aardt Bureau of Market Research

The situation  One of the highest per capita HIV/AIDS prevalence and infection rates in the world  About new infections per day  An estimated 4.7 to 6.5 million South Africans already HIV positive  More than people died because of AIDS related diseases during Expected to rise to about by 2008

HIV prevalence trends

Why is prevalence so high in S.A.?  Social and family disruption  High mobility and good transport  High poverty and low education levels  High level of STDs, low status of women  Low contraceptive prevalence  Many sexual partners  Culture and risk behavior  Fear of admitting status (denial)

HIV/AIDS lifecycle:

Key uncertainties  HIV/AIDS parameters, progress and epidemiological pattern  Institutional capacity to deal with it  Efficacy of drugs and vaccines  Efficacy of macro-, meso- and micro- responses to HIV/AIDS  Multipliers and mediating variables  Economy, education, business

Black population, 2001

Black population, 2006

Black population, 2011

Black population, 1996 to 2011

Stochastic distribution: Black population

White population, 2001

White population, 2006

White population, 2011

Stochastic distribution: White population

Asian population, 2001

Asian population, 2006

Asian population, 2011

Stochastic distribution: Asian population

Coloured population, 2001

Coloured population, 2006

Coloured population, 2011

Stochastic distribution: Coloured population

Impacts (1)  Demographic – size and structure  Labour supply and demand - outsourcing  Skills availability and skills formation  Income impacts  Expenditure and savings patterns  Health sector – cost and effort  Entrepreneurship  Economic structure and capital intensification

Impacts (2)  Households – negative spiral  Local government income and expenditure  Economy of scale effects  Factor flight and lower GDP per capita  Development and poverty  Priorities of people (medicines vs. education)  Formal sector behavior

Prospects  Substantially less people by 2010  Loss of a large pool of highly skilled people and entrepreneurs  Strong growth in unemployment and poverty  Decline in business confidence and growth of tax base  Economic growth and development  Social and political instability  Productivity and production