The Palestinian Challenge Between War and Negotiations

Militarized PL State Foreign forces using PL Terrorism and Rocket fire PL State: Security Threat Military Logic: Control Territory Israel’s Security Dilemmas What is the main threat? Worsening Demographic Balance Erosion of 2SS Logic of Implosion W/o PL State: Demographic Threat Political Logic: Withdrawal 1

War in Gaza, Negotiations on WB Negotiations With Fatah War Against Hamas Military Logic: Control TerritoryPolitical Logic: Withdraw 2

Is there a Palestinian Partner? Negotiations With Fatah War Against Hamas Fatah Internally Weak PA’s inability to fight terror Hamas controls Gaza & PLC Legitimacy of PLO? Abbas and Fayyad may not deliver 3

Shelf Agreement Abbas and Fayyad may not deliver The Goal: Shelf Agreement Easier to Achieve Guarantee 2SS Ensures Security Interests 4

Easier to Achieve Guarantee 2SS Ensures Security Interests Gaps too wide over Core Issues Palestinian Inversion towards PL State Hamas control in Gaza Ethos of Struggle can foil “Problematic” Ratification Process MindsetDiverging Reality 2SS Being pushed to Moment of Truth when there is no ‘ripeness’ 5

An Attempt to Anchor the 2SS may Bury it Calls for PA DissolutionEnd of Abu Mazen’s Political Career 6

Policy Options Creating a Safety Net Calls for PA DissolutionEnd of Abu Mazen’s Political Career Change the Agenda of Negotiations Break all or nothing dynamic Upgrading the PA The “Fayyad-Blair” Axis 7

The War Against Hamas in Gaza Leading the PNM; Destruction of Israel Mission Islamic State in Mandatory Palestine Vision No Clear Plan of Operation Implosion Strategy Strategy War of Attrition Military Asymmetry: Advantage It’s all about Survival Death toll: Indication for Victory Society’s Absorption Ability : Strategic Depth Hamas 8

The War Against Hamas in Gaza Its Simplicity Creates the Difficulty Relevant when Israel Outside Gaza or Inside it when Gaza is Independent or Occupied Hamas Manages to Rule and to Fight 9 Implosion Strategy Strategy Difficult to create organizing logic against Hamas

Policy Options vis-à-vis Hamas The Next Step? Tahdiya – calm Abbas’ position? Only Temporary Solution: Hamas armament Re-open Gaza’s crossings Prisoners Swap? Unity Government? 10 Difficult to create organizing logic against Hamas

Policy Options vis-à-vis Hamas The PessimistsThe Optimists Military operation in Gaza is inevitable Topple Hamas ? What about the day after? Hamas could be partner for PSPB PL. reunification first Fatah rejects 11