Probability and Punnett Squares 11-2

Genetics and Probability The likelihood that a particular event will occur is called probability.probability As an example of probability, consider an ordinary event like flipping a coin. –The chances, or probabilities, of either outcome are equal. –The probability that a single coin flip will come up heads is 1 chance in 2. –This is 1/2, or 50 percent.

Question If you flip a coin three times in a row, what is the probability that it will land heads up every time? Guess: _______________ each coin flip is an independent event, the probability of each coin's landing heads up is 1/2.

Answer the probability of flipping three heads in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 *1/2=1/8

The principles of probability can be used to predict the outcomes of genetic crosses.

Punnett Squares Diagrams that show the gene combinations that might result from a genetic cross Punnett squares can be used to predict and compare the genetic variations that will result from a cross.

When making Punnett squares, capital letters are used to represent dominant traits Lower case letters are used to represent recessive traits

Homozygous & Heterozygous Organisms that have two identical alleles for a particular trait (TT or tt) are said to be homozygoushomozygous –True-breeding Organisms that have two different alleles for the same trait Tt are heterozygous –Hybrid

Genotype and Phenotype Genotype refers to genetic makeup, or what alleles the organism has Phenotype refers to the physical appearance of an organism –Organisms with the same phenotype may not have the same genotype

Probability and Segregation Mendel had assumed that segregation of alleles had occurred during gamete formation Repeatedly, a 3 dominant:1 recessive ratio appeared in each of his 7 crosses Segregation did happen

Probabilities Predict Averages Probabilities predict the average outcome of a large number of events. Probability cannot predict the precise outcome of an individual event. If you flip a coin twice, you are likely to get one head and one tail..

However, you might also get two heads or two tails. To be more likely to get the expected 50 : 50 ratio, you would have to flip the coin many times Genetics is the same way. The more offspring, the closer to Mendelian ratios you get