Ohio Statewide Model Passenger Transit Calibration Pat Costinett Greg Erhardt Rebekah Anderson

Ohio Statewide Model Needs Study Conducted in 1998/99 Primary Goals reducing / minimizing / avoiding roadway congestion and delay; sustaining and improving the state economy; freight planning, particularly with regard to the management of truck traffic and the potential for shifting it to other routes and modes

Ohio Statewide Model Secondary Goals Include: supporting multi-modal/inter-modal options for travel, passenger and freight improving conditions for non-auto (and non- single-occupant auto) mode services Passenger Models Are Applied Disaggregately and Are Tour-Based

Disaggregate Household Synthesis and Employment Spatial Disaggregation Models Aggregate Commercial Vehicle Model Disaggregate Commercial Vehicle Model Interregional Economic Model Aggregate Demographic Model Land Development Model Activity Allocation Model Visitor Model Long Distance Travel Model Short Distance Travel Model Assignment Model Ohio Integrated Land Use/Economic/ Transport Model

Passenger Mode Choice Models Short Distance Tours – Under 50 miles Walk or Drive to MPO Transit Long Distance Tours – Inside “Model Area” Allow all Transit Alternatives Long Distance Tours – E-E or I-E Apply “Static” Mode Shares by Distance

Mode Choice Transit- Drive HSR- Drive HSR- Walk Transit- Walk AirAuto High Speed Rail only in future-years

Networks Highway Including Ohio Turnpike Transit MPO Transit Greyhound Amtrak High Speed Rail Air Freight Highway Rail

Ohio Networks

Ohio Transit Networks - Local 1098 Local Transit Lines

Greyhound and Amtrak Greyhound Routes 4 Amtrak Trains Added Links to Connect Greyhound and Amtrak Stations

Air Network Used % Airline Ticket Sample to Select City-Pairs that Have More than 10 Trips/Day Ft. Wayne – Cvd Dayton – Cvd Cincinnati - Cvd

Ohio Hub Study MWRRI – Completed Update in 2004 Ohio Hub Study Undertaken to Complement the MWRRI – 2005 with 2007 Update 2 Scenarios Modern Scenario – 79 mph speeds High Speed Scenario – 110 mph speeds

Ohio Hub Pittsburgh – Cleveland – Toledo – Ft. Wayne Cleveland – Columbus – Cincinnati Pittsburgh – Columbus – Ft. Wayne Columbus – Toledo

Internal Mode Choice VariableHouseholdWork-RelatedOther AssertedCalibratedAssertedCalibratedAssertedCalibrated In-Vehicle Time Walk-Access Time Drive-Access Time Wait TimeUp to 60 minutes > 60 minutes Daily Frequency of Service (Air) Cost (cents)Income $0-20k Income $20-60k Income $60k Transit-High Speed Rail Nest0.650 Transit Walk-Drive Nest0.500 High Speed Rail Walk-Drive Nest0.500 Air Constant Transit Constant Asserted based on review of literature Cannot determine access mode from survey

External Mode Choice VariableHouseholdWork RelatedOther EstimatedCalibratedEstimatedCalibratedEstimatedCalibrated ConstantWalk Drive Air Log(Distance), applied to Air Income $60k+, applied to Air Final likelihood ρ² w.r.t. zero ρ² w.r.t. constants Increases Air share as a function of distance

2000 Validation Efforts System Ridership by MPO – Good Data Greyhound Ridership by City Pair - Annual Amtrak Ridership by City Pair – Annual

2000 Validation – 4/30/07

2000 Validation – 5/2/07

2000 Validation – 5/4/07

2000 Validation – 5/2/07

2000 Validation – 5/4/07

2000 Validation – 5/2/07

2000 Validation – 5/4/07

2030 Calibration Efforts Mode / Line Totals Passenger Miles / Average Trip Lengths Annual Passengers by City Pair

2000 High Speed Rail – 5/2/07

Rebekah Anderson – Ohio DOT Greg Erhardt – Pat Costinett – PB