8/7/02 Dane County Vandewalle & Associates Strand Associates William O’Connor Roadway Concept Select Link Traffic Modeling August 7, 2002

8/7/02 Demand Modeling Review

8/7/02 112, ,000 83,200 33,600 21,300 96, , ,100 82,200 33,100 34,900 95, , ,600 80,600 41,100 42,000 91, , ,000 82,000 30,300 42,900 94, , ,800 79,200 30,200 63,700 90, , ,100 79,000 29,900 73,300 89, ,700 67,600 49,100 29,000 14,800 68, , , , , , ,100 94, ,00 148, , , , ,200 70,500 45,600 43,100 41,400 44,400 42,700 41,700 ~30,000 12,300 28,300 29,200 50,000 63,500 8,400 Alt 1 Alt 1A Alt 2 Alt 3 Alt 4 Alt 5 Exist System Effects ~Year 2050 Projected ADTs

8/7/02 37,000 45,600 45,500 45,400 47,600 46,700 28,900 33,600 33,100 41,000 30,300 30,200 31,300 29,000 13,100 12,500 11,800 12,600 13,100 16, ,200 34,900 42,000 42,900 63,700 69,600 14,800 12,300 11,400 28,300 29,200 50,000 56,100 8,400 8,500 10,500 10,100 10,000 6,200 5, ,100 8,600 8,000 8,200 9,400 8, ,400 2,200 2, ,800 5,900 4,500 23,700 1,100 1, ,400 10,100 8,300 5,500 44,600 45,600 7,800 Alt 1 Alt 1A Alt 2 Alt 3 Alt 4 Alt 5 Exist 10,100 8,600 6,500 6,600 1,600 3, ,700 7,400 7,700 7,300 6, ,200 2,300 3,200 3,000 4,000 2, ,600 14,200 26,200 12,800 12,400 11, Oncken Rd. STH 113 CTH Q CTH M STH 19 Northport Dr. Pheasant Branch Rd. CTH K Woodland Dr. River Rd. CTH I Schneider Rd. 15,900 14,100 13,500 13,800 13,300 13,600 13,200 Projected ADTs Northern Effects ~Year 2050

8/7/02 Key Conclusions - Demand Modeling All roadways will need to be upgraded (expanded shoulders, wider cross sections, and access control) to safely handle future traffic demands, no matter which alternative is implemented. The interstate will experience substantially greater traffic demands no matter which alternative is implemented. Freeway alternatives will draw small traffic amounts (5 to 10 percent) off of the isthmus and the south beltline. Therefore congestion remains. Freeway capacity will be fully used no matter which alternative is implemented.

8/7/02 Key Conclusions - Demand Modeling Different land use development patterns (compact vs existing trends) do not alter traffic volumes enough to reduce the need for roadway improvements (3 to 7%). Different land use development patterns do make transit options and alternate modes more viable/feasible. Excess capacity provided to Century Ave by some alternatives will be absorbed by local growth. Traffic volumes will remain similar to what exists today. Relief provided to any local collectors by the alternatives will be absorbed by local growth.

8/7/02 Key Conclusions - Demand Modeling The CTH M section from STH 113 to CTH Q is the greatest capacity constraint in the corridor. The largest traffic moving capabilities are observed when capacity is added to this segment Low build alternatives have heavy intersection volumes that will require higher level intersection improvements

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Select Link Analysis shows where the traffic is coming from and where it is going to on a selected link. –Useful in understanding travel patterns Select link analysis does not present total volumes on other roadways feeding or being fed by the link. For North Mendota Parkway, all select link information has been normalized to percentages. –Reduces chance of misinterpretation West to East is shown, yet East to West information is essentially identical. All information is ~2050

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 1 No Build Land Use Scenario 1 CTH M (STH 113 to CTH K) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 40% 20% 15% 85%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 1A No Build w/ Enhancements Land Use Scenario 1 CTH M (STH 113 to CTH K) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 34% 16% 12% 88% 12%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 3 Onken Balzer Connection Land Use Scenario 1 CTH M (STH 113 to CTH K) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 38% 13% 28% 60% 20% 12%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 5 4-Lane Freeway Off-Alignment Land Use Scenario 1 CTH M (STH 113 to CTH K) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 8% 53% 47% 17% 11% 34% 9%

8/7/02 Observations - CTH M East side Alt 1A improvements to CTH M between STH 113 and CTH K primarily influence travel patterns on Northport. Currently most CTH M traffic is oriented to Northport. The low build alternatives maintain this orientation. (85% to 15% split) With each successive improvement, more traffic is oriented towards STH 19 to the north. In alternative 3 the split is 60% to 40% and with alternatives 4 and 5 the split evens to 50% to 50%. With the higher build alternatives, traffic is attracted to CTH M from greater distances.

8/7/02 Observations - CTH M Select Link West side In the low build alternatives, a greater proportion of the CTH M traffic is drawn from the Century Ave corridor than CTH K or STH 19 With the higher build alternatives, Century Ave volumes remain constant. The additional build corridor provides a greater proportion of CTH M traffic. The higher build alternatives draw more traffic from outside arterials. With the low build alternatives there is more regional and less local traffic on Century. With the high build alternatives there is more local and less regional traffic on Century. Century volumes remain constant in both cases.

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 1 - No Build Land Use Scenario 1 Century Ave (CTH Q to Allen) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 42% 58% 42%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 1A No Build w/ Enhancements Land Use Scenario 1 Century Ave (CTH Q to Allen) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 44% 63% 33%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 3 Onken-Balzer Connection Land Use Scenario 1 Century Ave (CTH Q to Allen) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 44% 64% 26%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 5 4-Lane Freeway Off Alignment Land Use Scenario 1 Century Ave (CTH Q to Allen) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 44% 70% 26%

8/7/02 Observations - Century Ave Select Link Distribution remains relatively constant with all alternatives Higher build alternatives draw traffic from further east than lower build alternatives

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 1- No Build Land Use Scenario 1 Northport (CTH M to Knutson Dr) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 10% 56% 41% 18% 10%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 1A No Build w/ Enhancements Land Use Scenario 1 Northport (CTH M to Knutson Dr) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 50% 70% 20% 3% 27%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 3 Onken-Balzer Connection Land Use Scenario 1 Northport (CTH M to Knutson Dr) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 57% 21% 3% 39% 9%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 5 4-Lane Freeway Off Alignment Land Use Scenario 1 Northport (CTH M to Knutson Dr) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 74% 22% 26% 8%

8/7/02 Observations - Northport Select Link Analysis Distribution to the east remains relatively constant with all alternatives. In the low build alternatives, a moderate to high proportion of Northport traffic is drawn from the Waunakee area. In the higher build alternatives, Northport draws a greater proportion of its traffic (regional traffic) from farther west, generally along the build corridor.

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 1 - No Build Land Use Scenario 1 STH 19/Main (CTH Q and Endries Rd) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 50% 55% 5% 18%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 1A No Build w/ Enhancements Land Use Scenario 1 STH 19/Main (CTH Q and Endries Rd) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 54% 22% 47%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 3 Onken-Balzer Connection Land Use Scenario 1 STH 19/Main (CTH Q and Endries Rd) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 47% 19% 48% 7%

8/7/02 Select Link Analysis Alternative 5 4-Lane Freeway Off Alignment Land Use Scenario 1 STH 19/Main (CTH Q and Endries Rd) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~ % 44% 23% 45% 5%

8/7/02 Observations - Main St Select Link Distribution remains relatively constant with all alternatives Main Street tends to draw a slightly higher percentage of its traffic from the build corridor.

8/7/02 Select Link Also Performed for: Main Street - CTH Q and Endres South Beltline - Yahara Bridge USH 12

8/7/02 Next Steps 1. Preliminary transportation recommendations (selection & sequence of improvements) 2. Roadway and community character issues, techniques and recommendations 3. Preservation issues, techniques and recommendations 4. Intergovernmental relations issues, techniques and recommendations 5. Final transportation recommendations 6. Comprehensive Implementation Package Strategy 7. Project Report and, Report Adoption, Project Completion

8/7/02 Dane County Vandewalle & Associates Strand Associates William O’Connor Roadway Concept Select Link Traffic Modeling August 7, 2002