National Weather Service Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr. Director, National Weather Service NOAA Science Advisory Board November 6, 2001

$34 $692 $56 $445 $871 $5,600 $4,969 Disaster Impacts Tornado Hail Cold Lightning Heat Flood Hurricane Winter Storm Average Annual Deaths ( ): 502 Average Annual Cost ( ): $13.1 Billion Flood June 11, 2001 Hurricane Flood Heat $469

National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Service Areas and River Forecast Centers (Alaska and Hawaii also have Hydrometeorological Service Areas and share the River Forecast Center in Anchorage.) (Puerto Rice has a Hydrometeorological Service Area and is covered by the Southeast River Forecast Center.) River Forecast Center location

National Weather Service National Major River Basin Forecast Locations Hydrologic Service Delivery

National Weather Service Emphasis on Science and Technology Current forecast locations NEXRAD Radar Grid Forecast for each grid cell High Resolution Basins Forecast for each basin

National Weather Service Impacts of Recent NWS Reorganization Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) leads science infusion, data acquisition, and software engineering activities to support NWS field offices Hydrologic Science and Modeling Branch provides the critical focus for collaboration with the hydrologic research community Hydrologic Science and Modeling Branch provides the critical focus for collaboration with the hydrologic research community OHD Director ensures hydrologic science issues are prominent in NWS Corporate Board deliberations OHD Director ensures hydrologic science issues are prominent in NWS Corporate Board deliberations Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services identifies requirements and formulates national policy to meet emerging customer needs for hydrometeorology and hydroclimate services The Hydrologic Services Division facilitates consistent hydrologic warning and forecast products. The Hydrologic Services Division facilitates consistent hydrologic warning and forecast products.

National Weather Service Water Related Challenges 1.Monitor and forecast the water cycle 2.Improve atmosphere/land/ocean prediction systems 3.Translate full information content of weather and climate forecasts into hydrologic applications 4.Improve hydrologic data assimilation, modeling, and forecasting 5.Expand access to a consistent suite of hydrologic data and products 6. Improve water resource services

National Weather Service 1. Monitor and Forecast Water Cycle The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monitor and predict: temperature, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and sea-ice NWS advanced dynamic models support expanded weather and climate services NCEP issues threats assessments and drought monitor products Click here to enlarge image

National Weather Service 2. Improve Atmosphere/Land/Ocean Prediction Systems NCEP/research community collaborate to: refine model resolution extend to global domain improve ocean data assimilation techniques more fully exploit satellite-derived data OHD and NCEP are implementing land data assimilation systems nationally and globally Click here to enlarge image

National Weather Service 3. Translate Information into Hydrologic Applications OHD and NCEP are developing probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) for input to hydrologic forecast models Weather and climate model forecasts, for space and time scales courser than required for hydrologic prediction, are adapted to support hydrologic models, and to incorporate forecast uncertainty Weather and climate model forecasts, for space and time scales courser than required for hydrologic prediction, are adapted to support hydrologic models, and to incorporate forecast uncertainty Click here to enlarge image

National Weather Service 4. Improve Hydrologic Modeling OHD is developing new generation hydrologic data assimilation techniques and process-based distributed models through Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) and participation in the GEWEX America’s Prediction Project (GAPP) OHD led Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP) is guiding NWS hydrologic model development and implementation

National Weather Service 5. Consistent National Product: Significant River Flood Outlook 5. Consistent National Product: Significant River Flood Outlook Sample Product

National Weather Service 6. Improve Water Resource Services NCEP products are used by River Forecast Centers, Bureau of Reclamation, National Resources Conservation Service, and state and local agencies for water supply management NWS Western Region Hydrologic Services Division established a position dedicated exclusively to hydroclimate services AHPS implementation will provide more accurate stream predictions critical to reservoir operations, flood forecasts, and water supply management

National Weather Service Issues for NOAA’s Science Advisory Board Expanded Research and Development to: 1. Improve the accuracy of atmosphere/land/ ocean monitoring and prediction systems 2. Evolve distributed hydrologic models and data assimilation techniques 3. Incorporate uncertainty information into hydrologic applications