Scotland’s Identity John Curtice Strathclyde University/NatCen

Ways of Asking Forced Choice (either directly or after offering multiple choice) Moreno Different Identities Separately

Forced Choice National Identity Sources: Scottish Election Study; Scottish Social Attitudes

A (Slight) Age Difference

Trends in Moreno National Identity

But No Evidence of More Recent Change Source: Ipsos MORI

Looking at the Two Identities Separately Source: SSA 2012

Dependent Variables Referendum Vote Intention (after squeeze) Independence (in/out Europe) vs. Devolution (with/without tax) vs. No Parliament SP take all decisions vs. All bar foreign vs. All domestic bar tax & welfare vs. No decisions

Scottish Identity Far From Sufficient

But Is (Almost) Necessary

More Recent Confirmation Source: Ipsos MORI May 14. Don’t Knows included in denominator

It’s Britishness That Matters More!

Identity Not as Powerful as The Economy

Only (Really) Matters When Convinced The Idea is Practical Perceived Impact of Independe nce on Economy Scottish only More Scottish EqualMore British/Brit ish only Stronger No Difference Weaker9433

More Devolution Helps Satisfy The Duallists (But Also Has Cross-Appeal) Scottish only More Scottish EqualMore British British only Independ ence Devo Max EITHER

Summary Referendum would not be happening without the existence of a distinct sense of national identity. But a strong Scottish - or more importantly a weak British identity - is not a sufficient condition for supporting independence. People need to be convinced of practical efficacy of independence if they are to be persuaded to let go of their Britishness. (More devolution may be thought sufficient). Onset of referendum may have rekindled some people’s sense of being British.