Congress and 2008

Why the Democrats Win The Incumbency advantage The Fundraising Advantage The Retirement Advantage The Partisan Advantage

The Democratic Fundraising Advantage

Interest Group spending What they Can Do Where they Spent

501’s and 527’s What they are Where they Spent

THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE ADVANTAGE Retirements and Strategic challengers

Candidate Quality We Vote For members who we trust Political Amateurs? What is a quality Challenger?

Strategic Challengers Run when they are advantaged by the Opportunities What is Involved

The Incumbent Calculus LOSE< RETIRE< WIN

Strategic Politicians and 2008 The Democrats were willing to Run Republicans stayed home, or Retired

Attracting Good Challengers The GOP cannot find good challengers The Democrats did –In the House –In the Senate

Voluntary Retirements When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election. Why people Retire?

Retirements in the House 3 Special Elections in 2007 set the stage 23 Retirements and 29 open House seats for the GOP to Defend 7 open seats for the Democrats

Retirements in the Senate ZERO Democrats retired in Republicans –2 Safe States –Colorado, New Mexico, and Virgina

Why Retire or Stay Why So many GOP Retirements Why So Many Democrats did not

The Democratic Partisan Advantage (National Factors as Well)

Wave Elections They usually correct themselves 2006 and 2008 featured Democratic Tides –Unpopular Bush Presidency –Macro Factors

Contextual Factors A Sour Mood in the electorate 90% of voters believed the country was on the wrong track Consumer Confidence was at an all time low

A Poor Economy

The Bush Legacy

The Republican Brand A Tarnished Image Responsibility without Power Scandal Forced to go on local factors in a national election

A Shift in Partisan Loyalty Democrats grew with young voters Independents leaned Democratic Other Groups Went Democratic Key States went Democratic

The House Results

Fewer Safe GOP Seats GOP Gerrymandering Didn’t Work Congress is Unpopular

The Results 435 Up for Grabs Democrats Gain 23 House Seats The GOP is driven From New England

The House Results

Where the Democrats Won Defeating Vulnerable Republicans Winning in Districts where Bush Did Poorly Winning the Open Seats

The Senate

The Dynamics The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend –22 Republican Seats –12 Democratic Seats –5 open GOP Seats A Weak Republican Class

The Results

Why The Democrats Won Open Seats National Tides Red Senators in Blue States Not as big as it could have been

The Obama Effect In Red States –Net loss of 1 House Seat –1 senate Seat In the Flipped states –12 House Seats –4 Senate Seats In the Blue States –10 House Seats –3 Senate Seats