Elections, Campaigns, & Voting The who, what, when, where, why, and how of political participation

The Election Process

Nomination (Primaries) First you have to win your party’s nomination Doing well early on matters (remember Howard Dean?) Mostly decided by primary voting today (not caucuses) ◦ Open Primaries ◦ Closed Primaries Announced at Convention

General Election When we actually vote for president (or congressperson, or whomever) ◦ Formal eligibility requirements  See Constitution ◦ Informal requirements  White  Wealthy  Well known  Ok, not really, but it seems to help…

The Electoral College

Under the original Constitution people didn’t vote for the president directly Each state appointed “electors” equal to the number of representatives in Congress to form an electoral college and make a decision The college still exists, though it’s pretty much a rubber stamp now (and widely criticized) It forces politicians to focus on states, not just individual voters (see voting strategies section later on in this presentation)

How to win

How to Win Run an effective campaign Get the media on your side Raise and spend money like there’s no tomorrow (more on this in a bit) It also helps to be an incumbent

Incumbent victories in Congress

Incumbents (those seeking reelection) ◦ 90% of House incumbents win ◦ 70% of Senate incumbents win Advantages of incumbents: ◦ Name Recognition ◦ Campaign Contributions ◦ Resources of Office (franking privilege)

How should you run a campaign?

It’s not JUST money Hire professional campaign consultants ◦ Manager, fund raiser, media guy (or gal), etc. Follow polls closely Use the media effectively Advertise ◦ Marketing/Packaging Don’t be afraid to go negative HAVE A STRATEGY !

Strategy?

Campaign Strategies Front-End strategy ◦ Especially during the primaries Big-State strategy Battleground-State strategy Focus on the undecided (swing voters) Insider vs. Outsider Have a clear and consistent message

Understand how voters vote Retrospective Voting ◦ It’s the economy stupid! Prospective Voting ◦ What will you do for me? Non Voting ◦ Why should I give a damn?

Campaign Finance

How much do campaigns cost? A LOT! ◦ House: $1,000,000 every two years ◦ Senate $10,000,000 every six years  $25-50 million in large states ◦ The 2006 Congressional Campaigns cost a total of $1.5 billion ◦ The 2008 Presidential Campaigns cost a total of $2.4 billion ◦ Total spending on campaigns for elections in 2008 was about $5.3 billion

What can you do with $5.3 billion? Buy every single share of stock in China’s largest oil company Buy everything the US exported to China in 2006 Buy MCI Give every US citizen about $17.50

How the #%&!! do they raise that much? Public Money (there’s a box on your tax form), but it comes with strings attached Small Donations (Obama cleaned up on the internet with small donations) Large Individual Donors ($2,300 limit) Self-Financing (Hillary had lots of debt) Indirect donations ◦ PAC’s, 527 groups, etc.

Campaign Finance Reform

Reforms and Loopholes Limit Direct Donations Independent Expenditures & Soft Money Limit Soft Money Formation of PAC’s Limit PAC Influence 527 Groups Reporting Requirements Actually pretty successful Recent Developments? Fewer limits on private businesses (freedom of speech)

The Pros and Cons of Reform PROS Money makes people unequal and that’s undemocratic We have better things to spend money on The rich are the ones who LEAST need extra influence CONS Limits on donations infringe on freedom of speech and that’s undemocratic Strict rules actually hurt the little guys There’s always a loophole somewhere

To vote or not to vote…

Voter turnout in national elections

Why Americans don’t vote as much as other nationalities Independent registration requirements Lots of elections (on Tuesdays) Little difference between parties They don ’ t have to

US turnout by state (2004)

US turnout by age

US turnout by race (etc.)

US turnout by wealth

Why Certain Americans don ’ t vote

Socioeconomic Factors First off, correlation does not imply causation Factors associated with low turnout ◦ Young or very old ◦ Poor ◦ Uneducated ◦ Minority status ◦ Even religion seems to matter

Attitudes towards voting Apathy Alienation Voter Fatigue Rational Abstention Civic Duty Partisanship, interest, concern, etc. ◦ Salience (how much things matter)

Is low participation a bad thing? NO People who don ’ t care and are uninformed shouldn ’ t have an influence over important policy decisions Experts make better, more stable choices YES As fewer people vote, those who do become less and less representative of the population as a whole Also, low participation reflects a break down of all societal ties