October 14, 2014 University of Missouri Extension

Pat Guinan October 14, 2014

Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* April 2014 – September 2014 A benign growing season for much of Missouri, and the Midwest… climate.missouri.edu

Statewide Average Temperature Ranks July 2014 Period:

April 2014 Sep 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014

Class A Pan Evaporation Apr-Sep (in.) HARC*, New Franklin, MO, *Horticulture and Agroforestry Research Center Long-term average: in Highest water loss in 24 years

Departure from Normal Precipitation (in.) Oct 1-12, 2014 Source: Regional Climate Centers

Precipitation (in.) Oct 1-12, 2014 Troy 1.2NNE New Franklin 1.8E 9.86 California 0.3SW 9.75 Clinton 0.9NNW 9.72 Smithville 3.4E 9.53 Columbia 8.9E 9.35 Cole Camp 3.5WNW 9.30 Purdy 4.8SSW 9.19 Oct 1-13, 2014 Precipitation (in.) Source: Regional Climate Centers

Winter Temperature Outlook for Dec-Jan-Feb, Winter Precipitation Outlook for Dec-Jan-Feb, Issued: Sep 18, 2014

Weather Resources on the Internet River Information Resources for Missouri Missouri Climate Center

David Reinbott October 14, 2014

Issues Impacting Prices Record corn yield – ? Harvested acres down 1 – 2 million Rebound in demand Foreign corn production Corn acres in 2015

Acres plant/harv. (mil.) 97.2/ / /83.1 Avg. yield/ac. (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks Production Total Supply Use: Feed Ethanol Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu.$6.89$4.46 $3.40 Supply & Demand: Corn Sept To Oct Change -700 T

2014 – 2015 Acres planted (mil.) 90.9/ / /82.2 Avg. yield/acre (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks1.236 Production Total Supply Use: Feed5.375 Other6.530 Exports1.750 Total Use Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu.$3.40$3.30 $3.20 Supply & Demand: Corn

Dec 2014 Corn Futures

Monthly Corn Futures

Ron Plain Cattle Outlook (title) October 14, 2014

Source: USDA/ERS

2014 per capita meat consumption the lowest since 1991

2014: 33.6 million head, down 1.0% Smallest calf crop since 1948 Source: USDA/NASS U.S. C ALF,

U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly Source: USDA/ERS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 6.4%

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Year-to-date cow slaughter is down 14.1%

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Year-to-date heifer slaughter is down 8.2%

Female Share of Slaughter U.S. Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter Source: USDA/AMS Year-to-date female slaughter is down 10.6%

Sept 1 cattle on feed: down 0.8% Cattle On Feed

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Source: LMIC Cost of Gain is roughly $70/cwt

U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds * forecast Qtr 1 6,172 5,868 5,525* Qtr 2 6,516 6,183 6,100* Qtr 3 6,609 6,185 6,130* Qtr 4 6,423 6,120* 6,035* Year 25,72024,356*23,790* % Change % - 5.8% % + 1.3% % - 0.9% % - 1.4% % - 2.3%

5 Area Slaughter Steer Prices Choice Steers Per Live Hundredweight Qtr 1 $125.29$ $146.34$ * Qtr 2 $121.91$ $147.82$ * Qtr 3 $119.69$ $158.49$ * Qtr 4 $125.54$130.77$ *$ * Year $122.86$ $153.00*$ * *forecast

Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price, Monthly Average Thru Feb 2016 all cattle futures contracts are above $156 per cwt

OKC # Feeder Steer Price, Monthly Average Thru Sep 2015 all feeder cattle futures contracts are above $230 per cwt

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

David Reinbott October 14, 2014

Issues Impacting Prices Record soybean yield – ? Harvested acres down 1 – 2 million Rebound in demand South America soybean acres Soybean acres in 2015 China exports

Acres Planted (mil.) 77.2/ / /83.4 Avg. yield/acre (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks Production Total Supply Use: Crush Other Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu.$14.40$13.00$10.00 Supply & Demand: Soybean Sept To Oct Change K +.5

2014 – 2015 Acres planted (mil.)84.2/ / /82.5 Avg. yield/acre (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks0.092 Production Total Supply Use: Crush1.770 Other0.114 Exports1.700 Total Use3.583 Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu.$10.00$9.50$8.50 Supply & Demand: Soybeans

2014 November Soybeans

Monthly Soybean Futures

Ron Plain Hog Outlook (title) October 14, 2014

U.S. Retail Pork Prices, Source: USDA/ERS

Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri

U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, Source: USDA/ERS

New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by Week NAHLN Reports Source: AASV & NAHLN

U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Month January 2014 PPL lowest since January 2009

record

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Year-to-date hog slaughter is down 5.3%; pork production is down 1.7%

September Hog Inventory Which do you believe? Source: USDA NASS

Sows Farrowed By Quarter-U.S. Source: USDA/NASS

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Commercial Pork Production Forecast Million Pounds * forecast Qtr 1 5,777 5,785 5,910* Qtr 2 5,519 5,504 5,750* Qtr 3 5,622 5,490 5,860* Qtr 4 6,274 6,050* 6,405* Year 23,18722,759*23,925* Change % + 2.2% - 0.3% +4.5% - 3.2% +8.1% - 3.6% +5.9% - 1.8% +5.1%

Iowa-Minn Hog Price, Quarterly Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight Qtr 1$84.78$80.17 $94.97 $86-90* Qtr 2$85.45$89.33 $ $88-92* Qtr 3$83.15$95.36 $ $86-90* Qtr 4$79.93$82.36 $92-96* $74-78* Year$83.36$86.87$ * $84-88* * forecast price – prior day puchased

Net Slaughter Hog Price, Monthly Average

Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

David Reinbott October 14, 2014

Issues Impacting Prices World production and demand U.S. winter wheat acres

Acres planted (mil.) K Avg. yield/acre (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks Production Total Supply Use: Feed Food & Seed Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu.$7.77$6.87$5.90 Supply & Demand: Wheat Sept. to Oct. change

December 2014 Wheat

July 2015 Wheat

Monthly Wheat

Joe Horner October 14, 2014

Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell Supply Neutral –US cow numbers – rising slowly –US milk per cow – rising –US milk production – rising 2.5% year over year –US dairy product stocks rebuilding Demand Bearish –Domestic – weak fluid demand –Exports – NZ/AU production coming on strong –Global – dairy product prices falling significantly Outlook Profitable –Margins remain as feed costs drop faster than milk prices –Production constrained by cull prices and cow numbers

Stocks – Rising Bullish Neutral

MPP Enrollment by Nov 28

Dairy Price Outlook 4th Quarter st Quarter 2015 USDA – All Milk Price Sept. 17, 2014 $22.80 – $23.30 $20.40 – $21.20 $19.40 – $20.40 CME Group Futures Class III October 10, CME Group Futures Class IV October 10, MO Farm Forecast $23.25$19.25$18.75