Earthquakes in Missouri Mid-America Contingency Planning Forum Fall Symposium September 17, 2015 Ballwin, MO

Missouri’s Earthquake Program Outreach and Education (Preparedness) Earthquake Awareness Month during February Great Central U.S. ShakeOut during October Catastrophic Planning Efforts MO Seismic Safety Commission Structural Assessment & Visual Evaluation (SAVE) Coalition Support for Earthquake Exercises A big part of SEMA’s Earthquake Program is Outreach and Education, which includes Earthquake Awareness Month each February. The State first began planning for a catastrophic New Madrid Seismic Zone earthquake in 2005, following the devastation caused on the Gulf Coast by Hurricane Katrina. The New Madrid Bicentennial observance is underway to recognize the 200th anniversary of the great New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12.

Earthquakes Happen Almost Every Day Here

50+ Years Of Events DATE Mw LOCATION ZONE NOV 7, 1958 4.0 Southern IL WVSZ MAR 3, 1963 4.4 Near Poplar Bluff, MO NMSZ OCT 20,1965 4.5 Centerville, MO C US Random NOV 9, 1968 5.1 MAR 25,1976 Marked Tree, AR JUN 10, 1987 4.8 Southeastern IL JUN 18, 2002 4.6 Evansville, IN APR 18, 2008 5.2 Mount Carmel, IL Source: Dr. Greg Hempen, MO Seismic Safety Commission

St. Louis Area Earthquakes Since 1811 at least a dozen earthquakes have caused minor damage in St. Louis. (Public domain information: Saint Louis University Earthquake Center, St. Louis, Mo., 1999, http://www.eas.slu.edu/Earthquake_Center/EQInfo/Flyers/central_u.html)

Mt. Carmel, IL. April 2008 Felt in more than 20 states and across Missouri Photos: St. Louis University Earthquake Center

Earthquake ground motions stay Stronger over greater distances in the Eastern US M5.4 Alum Rock, CA Oct 30, 2007 M5.2 Mt. Carmel, IL, April 18, 2008 400 km 400 km 200 km 200 km Figure courtesy of Dave Wald, USGS

Future Danger in the Central U.S.?

Planning for Earthquakes

The Response Challenges New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Planning: The Response Challenges Approximately 7 million people at high risk No notice event that is not commonly recognized Large area of impact - 126,575 Sq. Miles Multiple jurisdictions with multiple governors Significant infrastructure impacts Response challenges multiple earthquakes/ aftershocks Poor situational awareness Security demands Mass care/shelter needs Major housing, evacuation, & relocation needs Urban & Isolated areas St. Louis 348 K 2 mil metro 5 Million Rural Pop. 160 – 200 Cities IL IN MO KY This no-notice event does not have public visibility or recognition, due to the large time gap between the historical events (1811-1812 and 1886). However, it will have significant impact on the critical infrastructure, which will in turn impact the ability to conduct response rescue and life support operations. Responders will be faced the problem of conducting operations during large potential aftershocks in the area. NMSZ has a history of multiple large scale earthquakes as experienced during 1811-1812. The impact of this event on emergency response and the nation will eclipse Katrina. Due to the impact on the critical infrastructure, we expect to lose communications, which will impact situational awareness. We anticipate a significant requirement for security. There is likely to be a large requirement for law enforcement support within the potentially impacted urban areas of St. Louis (1.5 - 2M population) and Memphis (1 – 1.5M population). In between these two metropolitan areas, there is a significant local rural population (8 – 9M population) dispersed. There are approximately 160 to 200 small cities within the rural area. The rural areas will be a significant challenge for response due to the thin (not concentrated) population, lack of infrastructure (difficult decisions to make) due to prioritization of resources. Some of these areas are anticipated to be isolated for a period of time. The scenario is further complicated as we address the MONUMENTAL housing challenge to support evacuation, shelter and hosting. The total NMSZ impacted area potentially is 126,575 miles, about ten times the size of the impacted earthquake area in California (12,000 sq. miles) For the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. TN AR MS AL Memphis 655K 1.3 mil metro

Planning: New Madrid Seismic Zone Concerns Earthquakes are no-notice events Midwest geology allows quakes to be felt over a much wider area than those in places like California Softer soils commonly located in river valleys amplify the earthquake effects Those same soils can also liquefy for a short time Many older buildings are made of unreinforced masonry and are vulnerable to shaking The public generally does not prepare for “low probability, high-consequence events” The effects of such an earthquake or earthquakes could be far beyond other disasters we have faced in Missouri Missouri will not be the only state affected by these quakes and so will not be able to assist neighboring states, while competing with them for outside resources The next big earthquake in Missouri will be different than a similar one in Alaska, California or Hawaii for several reasons

State Response Plan

Missouri S.A.V.E. Coalition 12/10/2012 Missouri SAVE Coalition Engineers Architects Building Inspectors Other Qualified Individuals Certified Under SAVE All Volunteer Professionals

What SAVE Does Mostly Rapid Visual Inspections per Applied Technology Council-20 and ATC-45 Exterior Only, Structural Life Safety Post Inspection Placards: Joplin EF-5 Deployment Data used by FEMA, Missouri National Guard, NIST, and ASCE Researchers

Missouri S.A.V.E. Coalition 12/10/2012 How SAVE Activates EVENT OCCURS Governor Declares Emergency Local Government Requests Building Inspection Help from SEMA S.A.V.E. Teams Begin Deployment

Joplin EF-5 Event Time Line May 22nd 5:41 pm Tornado Strikes May 22nd 5:42 pm Search and Rescue Efforts Begin May 23rd 8:10 am S.A.V.E. Regional Coordinators Begin Phone Tree Call Down May 24th 10:39 pm City of Joplin Requests Building Inspection Help from SEMA May 25th 10:19 am S.A.V.E. SW Regional Coordinator Deploys to Joplin May 26-28 S.A.V.E. Inspection Team Deployment

SAVE Members in Joplin - 2011 Photo Credit: Jeff Hower – S.A.V.E.

Example Unsafe Building Photo Credit: Ben Ross – S.A.V.E.

Results More than 7,700 Structures Inspected 36% Unsafe 6% Restricted Use 58% Did Not Present Life Safety Problems

Branson EF-2 Deployment March 3, 2012 .

Exercising Our Plans October 15, 2015 – Great Central U.S. ShakeOut earthquake drill October 16-17, 2015 – SAVE Coalition exercise at Jefferson Barracks August 2016 – National-Level Mass Care earthquake exercise in Missouri

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazard Mapping Project Expanded area of the House Spring and Maxville 1:24000 quadrangle map Shows areas of Liquefaction Collapse Landslide potential

Thank You! Steve Besemer, SNS/Medical Countermeasures Planner Office: (573) 526-9377 E-Mail: steve.besemer@sema.dps.mo.gov Jeff Briggs, Earthquake Program Manager Office: (573) 526-9232 E-Mail: jeff.briggs@sema.dps.mo.gov Missouri State Emergency Management Agency P. O. Box 116, 2302 Militia Drive Jefferson City, MO 65102