Ending Civil Wars: Challenges for Democracy and Governance Presentation to CDDRL Summer Fellows, August 6, 2013

Why Civil Wars Are Difficult to Negotiate Security dilemma and fear Total perceptions, stakes and rhetoric Pathologies of leadership Factionalization and intraparty conflict

The Fear Equation Parties in civil war come to fear the potential consequences of settlement more than the consequences of continuing the war.

What then do mediators try to do? Increase the fears of continuing the war Reduce the fears of settlement –Creation of detailed agreements –Reduce uncertainty of outcomes –Provide external supervision, monitoring, verification and implementation –Build trust and shared interests

Possible Tensions - Mediation and Democracy and Governance?

Tensions Legitimation of bad leadership? Marginalization of civil society? Certainty vs uncertainty? Sacrifice of accountability or sacrifice of stability? Rewards vs. corruption?

Democracy and Civil War Outcomes Source: Virginia Page Fortna, 2008

Peace Failures and Executive Systems

Implementation of Peace Agreements Successful when its easy and when lots of resources International implementers are driven by their own models and interests Possible contradictions?

Contradictions? Outside intervention for self-government International control and local ownership Universal models vs. local needs Expediency and short term vs. strategy and long term

Average Time Between Agreement and Election, Source: Brancati and Snyder, 2011

With limited resources and limited time what goals would you prioritize? Human rights; accountability for the past; police and judicial reform; legitimate elections; local governance capacity; disarmament; demobilization of combatants; refugee return; what else? Why?

DDR Implementation and New War Recurrence, Bracati and Snyder, 2011